The 19th of July is on.

[Workingman]

Well it is for England. NI, Wales and Scotland have their own dates and rules.

Most of the legal stuff has gone but we are recommended and expected to still social distance and wear masks in crowded places; and to meet outside where possible. Some businesses like nightclubs and large events will also be encouraged to use Covid-certification, but for the rest of us it is not a legal requirement.

Unless there is a great deal of change in events there will be a review in September.

[meriad]

I just hope they don't bring in quarantine again come September... I have my sister due to visit from Germany for five days

[Suff]

It is also looking like a swathe of EU countries will wind up on the green list in the next review.

#1 son has fixed holidays and was unable to come over to his home in France this summer due to the quarantine. Even though he and his wife are both double vaccinated. They're looking at October, as are a chunk of our family. #1 daughter will come for Christmas no matter what happens with Quarantine in the UK, so long as they don't have to isolate here.

No doubt there will be a 4th peak, it happened in Israel. But these peaks are less damaging than Flu and vaccination continues apace. Boosters will help, studies during MERS showed that 3rd time round the resistance is 4 times what it was first time and lasts correspondingly longer.

I just look at the claims, 100,000 per day infected and 200 per day dead and wonder just how desperate these who predict it are for it to happen. If it happens then it will fly in the face of everything that has been observed over the last 2 months.

The only downside for me is that the faster this ends the more likely I'll wind up in Canada working. Well it will either be a downside or Mrs S will come over and spend 6 months with me. Which might be nice. Commuting from Canada is not quite the same as commuting from London to Bordeaux.

[Workingman]

If current case trends continue in linear fashion we will hit 100,000 cases per day by mid August - the 18th or so. If hospitalisations and deaths follow at the same rate they will translate to daily figures of about 1,600 cases and 64 deaths. Those will almost certainly be higher because we have not broken the Covid link, but not by much because the number of us with double vaccinations will be over 92% - it could be higher.

The big question, and the one we do not want to answer, is how many daily deaths from Covid are acceptable for us to get back to some form of normality?

We are fast approaching the long-term trend (2015 on) for annual, monthly and weekly figures for UK deaths from all causes. Even when we do get a spike in Covid cases it still might be time for us to focus on other health issues.

[Suff]

Well the end of this week will be a telling point.

That being said, the serious/critical list is at 417 and deaths have dropped to 6. This could be the weekend effect, but it might not.

If cases do not climb into the 40k bracket by Friday, then 100k byt mid August is highly unlikely.

At the same time the serious/critical list is going to have to climb a hell of a lot faster to manage 50 or 60 a day dead.

Then again, Bojo could do a Macron, who has just triggered the cancellation of fete national festivities. People are more than not happy and we just saw slightly over 1k cases and less than 30 dead.

He is making his own political coffin. Lead lined.

[cromwell]

I just hope they don't bring in quarantine again come September... I have my sister due to visit from Germany for five days

I think you are right to be apprehensive Ria. The "experts" will be yapping in BoJo's ear non-stop. But Sunak and Javid seem to be in the open up camp.

Anyway, the 19th of July is on.

Well it sort of is, then again it sort of isn't.
Johnson has done so many U-turns he must be getting dizzy. Last week he was all "it is a matter of personal choice" re mask wearing. Now we will be "expected to wear them indoors and in enclosed spaces".

So not much change there then. Plus with all the devolved malarky our B-list failed national politicians, sorry, elected Mayors have powers over transport, so they can insist on them being worn on public transport, whatever they government might say. And as pointed out Scotland, Wales and NI can do whatever they want as health is devolved there.

So pretty much the usual shambles.

[Suff]

So pretty much the usual shambles.

I heard that from Mrs S too. Then I read the reports. Oh the headlines screamed that it was a mess. But the detail did not.

Masks as personal choice. Night clubs and other venues where close proximity was expected were "recommended" to mandate vaccinations for anyone who comes in. But, again, choice. Wherever else masks were "recommended", it was, again, choice.

The theme of opening up has been pretty clear. Common sense, stop and think, personal responsibility. The "law" is going to be withdrawn and the government expects people to act like adults. i.e. from their perspective, if you haven't been vaccinated, don't go to nightclubs, crammed pubs or restaurants and wear masks indoors. If you have been vaccinated, make your choice and do what you think is safe.

If this is a shitshow and a mess and a shambles, then the UK is a pale shadow of the country I grew up in.

[saundra]

Don't believe a word of it till it happens

[Workingman]

Choices, eh?

For months I partially shielded because I was and still am vulnerable, even with two jabs. I only went out twice a week to shop late at night wearing a mask to help keep me safe; and I did it for months on end. Those were the government's legal rules. Me partially saving you, you partially saving me.

They have now gone and the government has pushed the onus to be responsible citizens on to you, and you are so precious you will not comply, so I now have to allow you anti-maskers to set the rules and my choices. From what I see you lot do not give a 5h1t so long as you get your mask-free way.

Some regulations curtailed us all in some way, for our own good, but tell me, how did wearing a mask change your life? Did they stop you breathing, having sex, going from A to B unhindered, watching the game? No. You lot just don't like them and sod everyone else.

[Suff]

Some regulations curtailed us all in some way, for our own good, but tell me, how did wearing a mask change your life? Did they stop you breathing, having sex, going from A to B unhindered, watching the game? No. You lot just don't like them and sod everyone else.

A very personal viewpoint. Mrs S is 85% deaf and almost completely lip reads! She has behind the ear hearing aids today which cost £5,000 for the pair. Over ear face masks hook the hearing aids out and she lives in fear that she'll hook one out and it gets destroyed on the ground before she notices. So she's in shops trying to talk to and understand people wearing a mask who won't wear a mask that allows for her disability. I can tell you she cares just as much about your issues with masks as you do about her issues with needing people to be wearing hearing impaired friendly masks. Did the Government legislate for this disability? Did it hell.

Personally I'm much better than I was before I went into hospital but my SPO2 drops dramatically when I'm wearing a mask. Even now it varies from around 98% to 91% depending on what I'm doing. Before I went into hospital it would drop below 80%. I've tried it mask on and mask off, there is a reduction in SPO2 with masks on because it does restrict the air flow. Not a problem for someone with a correctly working cardiovascular system, but decidedly uncomfortable for someone without one. I know you have your own cardio issues, but I've found this quite an issue if I am doing any kind of exercise, like walking quickly, with a mask. Because I still have a constriction on my coronal artery, which they didn't see as an imminent risk, I still have issues with blood flow even though I have a stent.

So, not, it's not just "I can't be bothered", masks are a severe irritant for some and a very specific mental health issue for others. Mrs S is also clinically claustrophobic (having had mental health support for it before). Can you imagine the mental damage forcing constant mask use is on someone who is both suffering from claustrophobia and deafness.

But who cares about us? We're just selfish B'stards.