The 19th of July is on.

[cromwell]

According to Fraser Nelson in the Spectator, Boris Johnson lost his nerve again and wanted to cancel "freedom day", but having sounded off so much about it, couldn't.

Sounds about right. So now we have total confusion. You don't have to wear masks but you are expected to. You have to wear them on the tube in London, but not on a train in London. Hospitality venues don't have to ask you for your vaccine passport, but they should do, to be "socially responsible".

Sainsbury's will be asking you to wear a mask even though you don't have to.

Shambles.

[Workingman]

According to Fraser Nelson in the Spectator, Boris Johnson lost his nerve again and wanted to cancel "freedom day", but having sounded off so much about it, couldn't..

It would not surprise me.

Reading reader's comments in "The Dailies" many are saying that Sunak and Javid pushed him into it for the sake of the economy. They have a fair point because furlough and keeping hospitality and entertainment could not go on and on and on. Too many jobs and a large part of the economy at stake.

Opening up had to happen at some time and the summer months are the most opportune time to do it even if we do get some restrictions back in winter.

[TheOstrich]

Shambles.

To which you can add that Manchester Metrolink (trams) are reportedly now saying:

Anyone not wearing a face covering and not exempt will not be allowed to travel of face a fine of up to £100.

Apparently, they have no authority or right to issue fines ...

[Suff]

Apparently, they have no authority or right to issue fines ...

Which will lead to refusal to pay or court cases in which the plaintiff will try to take them to the cleaners for "distress".

[Suff]

There is some news in the press over the last day or two.

First is that, now, more than half the people dying of covid have been vaccinated. Not sure if it says double vaccinated or single, that would be useful to know. The articles are quite precise about his. Someone in their 70's is 31 times more likely to die from the virus than someone in their 20's. As the vaccine is not fully 100% effective, especially on a single dose, the study had expected the levels of deaths. No real data on how fragile the people who died were. i.e. in their 90's and already had breathing difficulties? A neighbour of mine was in his 60's, had asthma and waited too long to go to hospital in 2003 during the heatwave. He died of breathing issues. So that data is important. Also the study tracked less than 300 deaths from the beginning of Feb to the beginning of June. In Jan there were over 1,000 people dying per day.

The next thing I saw today was that the largest number of new cases is in the 12-24 age group, with a strong correlation to the euro's. Whether that is a trend which will continue or not is still to be seen. We will find out if unlocking has the real effect that they are predicting. The one thing which is sure is that we won't see 1,300 deaths per day even with 100,000 cases per day. Because the current death rate is % is not that high and for the % to go back to January levels, would require the vaccines to be largely ineffective.

[Suff]

Just a bit of perspective here.

Waves 1/2/3 in cases.



Waves 1/2/3 in deaths



I'm struggling to find the hospitals overwhelmed...

[miasmum]

That is very interesting Suff

[Workingman]

So, we hit nearly 52k today making us well on course for 60k come Monday.

This prompted me to go looking here.

The projections are from IHME: The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation an independent global health research centre at the University of Washington and are based on past data. It's interesting to see what they say about those bloody useless masks.

Brilliant if you're a believer, absolute crap if you don't like them. I'm a believer.

[Suff]

The projections are from IHME

Projections. They projected that full lockdown and masks and social distancing would avoid a second wave. Just have a look at the graphs above and tell me, were those projections about mask use and lockdowns and social distancing met?

However we have the projections. Now we can go track them. I've printed the site to PDF to get a benchmark. Sept 8th should do.

They projected that mask usage will drop from 50% to 24% (may be lower). They also projected the deaths and beds by Sept 8th. Worse than the second wave they say.

We shall see if they are right or not.

[Workingman]

We shall see if they are right or not.

Yep, see you in September for the announcement of the next lockdown, or maybe sooner.

Don't bin those masks just yet.