Heat pumps

[cromwell]

These are the things that are supposed to replace gas boilers.
In fact our government have pledged to put them in 600,000 houses a year by 2028 as part of the net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 project.

There are a few problems though. These things cost circa five times what a gas boiler costs. They produce lower temperatures than a gas boiler. They take up more space and they are more disruptive to install. At the moment customer demand for heat pumps is low - understandably. At the current rate of installs it will take until 2057 to install 600,000 heat pumps a year, not 2028.

Lastly there are only 1,200 tradespeople in the UK who can install heat pumps. Heat pumps take longer to install than gas boilers, a lot longer. But the government's target of 2028 would mean these tradesmen would have to install two heat pumps every day, 365 days a year, to install 600,000 per year.

Not going to happen, is it?
It's easy to set "ambitious targets" but another thing to meet them.

And this is before you wonder if we actually have the grid capacity to cater for the increased demand for electricity.

[Workingman]

Don't forget that they are not suitable for high-rise flats, maisonettes, industrial terraced housing or the village strip / terraces up and down the country. That's millions of homes immediately out of the loop.

These places are mostly where the poorer people in society live. These people will be reliant on electricity for all their household needs. As we move away from fossil uses the government loses an assortment of income streams. When the gas taps are turned off one of the few left, and certainly the only one with universal reach of the population, will be electricity.

In the years to come electricity prices are going to rise, and then some.

Heat pumps are another of those "all eggs in one basket" ideas to the exclusion of all else.

[Suff]

Chicken and egg.

In 2010 when Nissan introduced the Leaf, there were virtually no mass market consumer pure battery EV's. By December 2020 Nissan had sold their 500,000th Leaf. There are ~80 million vehicles sold annually in the world. Drop in the ocean isn't it?

Except Tesla started producing their Model S in 2012. Followed by the X, then in 2016 the true mass market Model 3 and in 2019 the Model Y, another mass market car.

Tesla sold just short of 500,000 Battery electric vehicles in 2020 alone. In 2021 Tesla has sold 630,000 vehicles already. By 2023 Tesla will be selling 2m pure electric vehicles a year. The annual sales for full electric vehicles was less than 2m in 2019. So far in 2021 it is over 4m.

This level of sales drives everything, chargers, power generation, servicing facilities and even whole new sales concepts (totally online).

Why would we not expect things in heat pumps to go the same way?

What is the alternative being offered? Hydrogen? Who wants that in their kitchen? Even worse, they are talking green hydrogen up (created by renewable power), but the energy companies are waiting in the wings with blue hydrogen (steam reformed methane from oil burning natural gas and dodgy unproven carbon capture and storage), to fill the gap when green hydrogen fails. Have you ever wondered just how much blue hydrogen will cost? Or how you're going to fit it into your home and your vehicles?

There is one thing which is 100% certain. We don't get to continue this uncontrolled climate experiment by continuing to burn fossil fuels unabated.

The alternative?

Heat pumps, at current technology levels, can give up to 5:1 efficiency boost. Or put another way 5x heating over normal electric heating units.

Given that FF burning is not an option and Hydrogen is the next best thing to no option, what is the next best option?

[Suff]

Don't forget that they are not suitable for high-rise flats, maisonettes, industrial terraced housing or the village strip / terraces up and down the country. That's millions of homes immediately out of the loop.

Well they're not going to allow H2 in high rise buildings.

I Don't see why they can't be suitable for high rise flats? As seen here, the air cooled heat pumps, which are being aimed at this kind of work, are perfectly mountable on a building. Granted they're not very pretty, but far from impossible.



They're not presenting ground spike systems for general use. Perhaps the Government should ask Tesla how to do it? Tesla wanted to reduce the draw of the aircon system so they shoehorned a HVAC system into their cars. Giving further range and better climate control.

None of this will happen if we don't try. If we only focus on the here and now, the future generations are royally screwed.

[Workingman]

Heat pumps are not about cars, they are about heating.

Once we turn off the gas electricity is the only thing we have left, and as I pointed out earlier they are not for every home - not even near, and of sod-all use for many industries.

I agree that hydrogen for cooking and heating is not a brilliant idea, as such, but it could be part of the power infrastructure for vehicles, but back to heating.

... what is the next best option?

Many years ago our first neighbours had a converted coal barge moored at Rodley. It had two double bedrooms, a large lounge, galley kitchen, wash / shower room, toilet and utility area - a small house. As well as the engine generator, when underway, its power came from solar panels on the roof and two small wind generators - fore and aft. One of those was dedicated to hot water for the sinks, shower and central heating. The boat was steel hulled so needed CH even on some summer days.

I have often wondered if John's "Heath Robinson" heating set-up could be adapted for use on a house.

[TheOstrich]

When our local plumbing/heating engineer guy came around last month to do the annual gas boiler service, I asked him if he and his lads were going to get involved with heat pump technology.

When he'd finished laughing, he said "No".

[Suff]

Heat pumps are not about cars, they are about heating.

Heat pumps being recommended by the government are air HVAC pumps. The same as Tesla put in their cars. The issue Tesla had was making one small enough and efficient enough, which I understand they did. It was assumed that a home style HVAC A/C pump could not be fitted in a car until Tesla did it. Once they did, other manufacturers started racing to do the same as they also needed the efficiency just to keep up.

To which the rapid advancement of small, efficient and low power heat pumps is now in the automotive sector, rather than the home heating sector.

The Government proposed HVAC pumps for homes are the same as an A/C system which sit on the house wall or in the house garden. These should become smaller for the same capability, or more heat power, for less energy, for the same size.

As you say, H2 is not a good choice for cooking or heating, although Town gas was 46.3% – 51.8% H2 with 28% methane and a mix of other gasses including carbon monoxide. So it has been done before, just not pure H2. Damned dangerous though.

Change is never easy and never cheap. Not changing, though, will come with a price nobody wants to pay.