Looking at trade agreements

[Suff]

There is an interesting untold story. Of course it is all played down, dumbed down and made derisory by the press. But reality is something else.

I was at a party 2 weeks ago with French/German friends and was talking to the English partner of one of our German friends. She's a farmer here in France.

He was doing the usual litany I hear here about how Britain is just a small country and we're screwed for trade and it's all a mess and we'll come crawling back some time.

It was then that I hit him with something he had no clue about. CPTPP. Yes everyone dismisses it. It's just some bunch of nations doing a bit of trade isn't it?

So I explained to him what it was. It is a market of $11,5tn With the UK it will be a market of $14.7tn. What is the estimated size of the EU market in 2021? Well it depends where you look but it is coming out pretty constant at $15.5tn.

Hardly something to be sniffed at. So who are the participants of CPTPP?

Australia, Canada , Chile, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam.

Each member of CPTPP has a veto on new members. The UK applied to join CPTPP on Feb 1st 2021.

Who has the UK been arranging the much derided trade deals with over the last year? Among others:

Australia, Canada , Chile, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Singapore, Vietnam.

Note only Peru is missing. There are two other signatories of CPTPP But not ratified. Those are Brunei and Malaysia.

OK, so when we get to the negotiations to join this $11.5tn trade bloc, only Peru won't have a trade agreement with us. Yes they have a veto but are highly unlikely to do so as they would gain an excellent export market.

Now to the best part of the whole thing. Who else is applying to join CPTPP?

China, Taiwan, The US (again), Colombia, Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand and the Philipines.

Apart from China, who Australia will almost certainly veto, I can see all the remaining being admitted. Making by far the largest trading bloc in the world and giving the UK the trade deal it is looking for. Or at least the beginning of a larger and more comprehensive trade deal with the US than CPTPP would create.

I find it interesting that nothing is ever said about this, nobody joining the dots, yet it is very clearly the government strategy to join CPTPP and then use it as a springboard to gain the trade access it wants with other large player.

All I see are drivel articles in the press about how the EU is the largest trading bloc in the world (it isn't, not in money, people, or traded goods), or idiotic glee about leaving with no clue about how this is going to work in the future.

Fortunately our government does have a plan.

[cromwell]

Well fingers crossed it's a good plan and a deal that will benefit us.

[TheOstrich]

Indeed. And when are they due to consider the UK's application? So far, all that's happened is that they've agreed to open discussions with the UK sometime.

It's not a done deal anyway, Suff; your mates north of the Border don't like it (impact on farming etc.)

Incidentally, it appears Chile has not yet ratified acceptance of the agreement. It's been blocked by their Senate (upper house) as the Estellido Social protest movement (the force behind ongoing civil unrest) is against it.

(Sources:Wiki)

[Suff]

These things take time. Chile was in the list of those active members. Not that it makes a really big difference.

From the CPTPP wiki page.

In June 2021, the CPTPP states agreed to open accession talks. A working group is expected to be established to discuss tariffs and rules governing investment and trade. The UK is not expected to accede to the CPTPP until 2022 at the earliest