A vote of "no confidence".

[Workingman]

Not on the Cons, that would fail, but on The Johnson.

The hacks are out claiming that one is closer than close with a whole raft of quotes from a variety of MPs to that effect.

It would take 54 letters to the 1922 committee to make one happen, and it is known that there are 57 about to rebel on the latest plan-B restrictions. The list of reasons is many and varied and a long one going back a long way.

The big problem for the Cons will be who to replace him with. Most of the current "known" members of cabinet are despised by a large proportion of the electorate - Gove, Schapps, Patel, Raab? Even Sunak has lost his shine. Truss - oh my goodness! Hancock-up!

Interesting times ahead.

[cromwell]

That's the problem. Some in the Conservative party want Johnson gone, but to be replaced by - who, exactly?
People like Shapps and Williamson are non entities.
If they appoint a Remainer like Javid the Brexiteers will kick off.
Sunak? Who knows anything about him, really?
The irredeemably bitter Theresa May? Don't think so.
Jeremy Hunt thinks a lot of himself but on what evidence?
I worked at one place where the management was dire. The boss had to go, we all thought so. And he did. And then the same with the next guy and so on.
And every time, the new bloke was worse than the last one.
They need to be careful what they wish for.

[Suff]

Until things settle with Covid and the trade relationship nobody will want the poisoned chalice.

The useful idiot will remain in place until the sea is smoother.

The only problem is that he is not an idiot and trying to treat him as one is the first foot in the grave.

[Workingman]

The only problem is that he is not an idiot and trying to treat him as one is the first foot in the grave.

Classic!

Balloon combing Mr Mop-head is not an idiot.

Brilliant.

Nurse, Suff needs his meds.

[cromwell]

Until things settle with Covid and the trade relationship nobody will want the poisoned chalice.

Not so sure about that Suff.
There's always some ambitious backstabber on the make. Jeremy Hunt may be no use, but he's certainly got a big opinion of himself and lots of ambition.
Boris's appeal is electoral. He is probably lazy and doesn't do detail though; also he hasn't been strong enough to stand up to his missus.
People are blaming Carrie for wanting mega expensive wallpaper and her mates in No 10 jobs, but Boris didn't have to give in to her. But he did; and both of those episodes have come back to bite him.
The power struggle between Cummings and Carrie was won by the latter, and it's done Johnson no favours. He has just made bad choices (or avoided making difficult ones).
At the end of the day though, who takes over? (And we're assuming Johnson loses the leadership contest, should it ever occur).

[Suff]

Balloon combing Mr Mop-head is not an idiot.

Plenty of dead careers out there who thought that was true.

[Suff]

(And we're assuming Johnson loses the leadership contest, should it ever occur).

I'm not.

Maggie didn't get back stabbed till things were truly under control. Challengers tend to be lazy and disinclined to face the hard tasks. Also backers of lazy challengers are well aware that the blame game will eat them alive when it all goes to the wall.

They haven't forgotten May yet.

The most likely time for Johnson to be challenged is 1 year before the elections, with a bad polling record, or just after winning it with a significantly reduced majority.

The polling will have to be a lot worse than it is now and for some time, before he faces a challenge.

He still holds a very large majority and the possibility of a new PM deciding to do a May and trust the polls, is low.

[cromwell]

Atm the Conservatives have an 80 seat majority but are eight points behind in the polls.
So no chance at all of a snap election imo.

[Suff]

Tell me any sitting government that remains 8 points ahead in the coming months and I'll show you a dictatorship.

Virtually everything is about Covid right now and the demarcation lines are set and split down the restriction/freedom divide. There is no middle ground, that just gets both sides mad.

[Workingman]

Maggie and May's removals were political

Maggie faced a direct leadership challenge in Dec 1989 from Anthony Mayer, and won; then came the decline. In 1990 she had the ERM and Poll Tax debacles and then she sacked Howe. In his resignation speech he flayed her alive. Heseltine saw an opportunity for a leadership challenge and took it. Thatcher won, but not by enough votes so a second vote was needed. Following a series of 1-on-1 meetings with her cabinet where she was not fully supported she resigned, but not before Labour tabled a motion of no confidence in the government. Major took over when polls showed that he would beat Heseltine in a leadership contest.

May's going was all about Brexit. She was defeated three times due to her party's "Brexit Bastards". However, she had won a vote of no confidence in her by enough of a majority to make her immune from a further challenge for one year. She did offer to resign if Conservative members passed her Brexit deal in parliament. When that failed (the third defeat) she was on borrowed time and knew it. Losing 1,000 seats in the local elections didn't help. When she offered a vote on a second referendum enough was enough and she had to go. There were something like eleven nominees for her post.

The Johnson isn't facing a leadership challenge, he is in popularity contest and a lot of it is about his personality, lack of attention to detail, ethics, corruption, sleaze, U-turns and so on. His personal approval rating with the electorate stinks with 64% think he is doing badly and 27% thing he is fine. This rating has been dropping for months. Shropshire on Thursday could force a few hands, the locals next May certainly will.

If there is a vote and he doesn't win by 50%+1 (181) then there will be a challenge. If he doesn't win by a big margin he might have to resign.