And the numbers roll on

[cromwell]

"Cases" are no justification for a lockdown.
Hospitalizations and deaths maybe.
But the agenda is obviously set.
Something "might" happen, so let's shut the country down again.
The logic of this is that every winter the country is shut down because of a possibility.
And all based on advice from a clique of scientists who couldn't predict what day comes after Friday.

[cromwell]

An absolutely extra ordinary exchange between the journalist Fraser Nelson and Professor Graham Medley, Chairman of the SAGE modelling committee.
I hope you can see it, it's definitely worth the trouble to read if you can.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my- ... -committee

[Workingman]

Would that be the Fraser Nelson with a diploma in journalism v Professor Graham Medley, virologist and epidemiologist from the LSHTM. Tough choice.

It's a good read, but basically, ballcocks.

[Suff]

It may be, however today's numbers with flat serious cases, the usual Sunday Reduction in deaths and continuing high cases simply proves that two weeks of exponential Omicron case growth is having absolutely Zero impact on the health service.

On this data they pour innuendo and speculation to try and generate fear with the words Could and Might and Possible.

None of it is worth reading. Instead 10m emails to the PM to get him to explain just why Javid is spouting crap without evidence would be a far better use of everyone's time.

[Workingman]

Without the evidence, and it is not there yet, both sides are spouting crap, and that includes you.

We are still some days away from having relevant data about the long and short term effects of Omicron. Nobody at this time can give a definitive answer as to where we go from here - it is all guesswork. Unfortunately there are those on both sides who are convinced that their take is right and everyone else is wrong.

Fingers in ears to all of you is how I will continue to operate.

[Suff]

130,000 new cases today, plus we have had around 100,000 cases each day for a while now, enough time to skew the numbers anyway.

Over the last 3 days we have averaged 55 deaths a day and have stayed static with 842 serious cases.

Granted Christmas over a weekend will upset the numbers with public holiday days only ending tomorrow. So it will be Friday before we really get the trend.

Alternatively France is running at very high numbers, 180k cases today, 290 deaths and 3,330 serious or critical. French 3 day deaths are running at 214 per day on average.

The major differences between France and the UK? The UK predominantly used AZ for the vaccine and for France it was Pfizer. The majority of new cases in France are Delta right now, but in the UK they are Omicron.

Fairly interesting story there.

[Workingman]

"Incomplete!". "Incomplete!". "Incomplete!".

The warnings about the data from the ONS and dashboard. It's like getting a monthly bank statement with transactions missing and accepting the ending balance as gospel.

It will be Tuesday the 3rd before the 'Festive Season' reporting washes out of the system, and possibly even Friday the 7th

Expect a new 'announcement' on Monday the 10th. Till then do not read too much into what the media are saying.

[cromwell]

Story in the Telegraph.
NHS data from Dec 21st shows that on that date there were 6,245 beds occupied by Covid patients in England, and increase of 259 from the previous week.
Of that 259 though only 45 patients were admitted because of Covid. The other 214 were what the NHS calls "incidental Covid" admissions. This can include people with a broken legs who have tested positive for Covid.
I don't know what to think of this really. On the one hand it's right that patients are tested and cases recorded.
On the other it's misleading to say that Covid admissions to hospital were 259; they weren't, the number was 45, the rest being mostly asymptomatic and being admitted for other reasons.
This is going to make quite a difference if the trigger point for more restrictions is Covid admissions of 400.

Overall out of 6,245 patients in hospital with Covid 1,813 were incidental cases at that date.

Now from last Tuesday it says that 9,546 (that seems a big jump?) people are in hospital with Covid but that there is no breakdown of that information to say how many are incidental.

It seems to me that you can argue these stats two ways, which is not particularly a good thing imo.

[Workingman]

Talk about nit-picking. If you are in hospital for a heart attack and it is found that you have Covid you become a Covid patient as well - at the same time, simultaneously, concurrently - and you get recorded.

Maybe the Torygraph would want the NHS to ignore and not treat these 'incidental' cases because that is not what the patient was brought in for. Heart attack over: "Off you go Bob, be careful not to infect anyone with that Covid."

Mind you, the NHS has not helped itself with the description 'incidental': an afterthought, secondary, of minor importance, when 'concurrent' describes it better. Except that it didn't, it was the Torygraph that used it in to good effect in its piece after picking up on it from the Birdies.

[Suff]

Expect a new 'announcement' on Monday the 10th. Till then do not read too much into what the media are saying.

I did mention the long weekend plus public holiday is skewing the figures.

But, even so, we have seen these rises before and even on holidays the numbers continued to rise dramatically.

However, as you say, it may take till the 7th before we see the real picture.

Then again, even with incomplete figures, the government knows the stress on the NHS right now and the trend on that stress.

After weeks of fear mongering to drive up jabs, no new restrictions either at Christmas or NY.

That is a tale all its own.