Battery Electric plug in (BEV), sales for Tesla in 2021.

[Suff]

Tesla estimated a bit more than 50% growth for 2021. In fact they made around 87% growth.

Tesla had estimated that they will grow 50% on average until 2030.

Much more important than the pure numbers are four facts.

Tesla sold twice as many vehicles as JLR in 2021, roughly.

The Q4 run rate for Tesla was 1.44m vehicles. That makes the run rate larger than Mazda or Geely, who own Lotus and Volvo. In 2021 Tesla succeeded in growing between Q4 2020 and Q1 2021, something they had never done before, it was always a lull in Q1.

Tesla opens two new megafactories in 2022. It will take a year to ramp them properly, so they won't outsell BMW until some time in 2023, at which time they will overtake Mercedes too.

VW, who are apparently all in are hardly competing.

In November. Tesla global sales of the Model Y and 3 were 45k and 39k respectively.

The competition from VW, the second largest manufacturer in the world, was 14k ID4 and 8k ID3 respectively.

We have to remember that these numbers are all pure battery electric, not a bunch of fossil burning hybrids.

Another interesting year to come.

[cromwell]

It will be an interesting year, yes.
Musk is obviously a remarkable man.
Story in the Telegraph today though about a Mr Gino Pooley of mid Wales. Who is a gentleman who needs to upgrate the electrical supply to his house.
He wanted to upgrade to fix chargers for his family's two vehicles and for a heat pump.
I didn't know this but 100 amps is standard for newbuilds, but some older houses have on a 60 or 80 amp supply.
SP power networks have quoted Mr Pooley £14,678 to upgrade his electric supply - ouch! He's now dropped plans for the heat pump.
This is quite a rare case, as most upgrades will cost way less than this.
Upgrades to the national grid to cope for the expected rise in demand will cost £££££ though.
So yes, interesting.
Issues like this, the cost of going green, will probably do for Boris.

[Suff]

Early adoption is a pain. However if he was to petition the government on the fact that the company is scuppering their plans for heat pumps, then he might find a positive result.

In fact the SP CEO will probably be carpeted soon due to the press response.

[cromwell]

Possibly Suff, thinking about it mid Wales is a pretty rural area. If this guy is off the beaten track it might account for the high quote.

[Workingman]

FFS!!!

He owns two cars that I helped pay for through his grants even though I will never be able to own or run one; and he also wants a heat pump that I will also help to pay for with a grant even though I cannot own one of those either. Now he has the gall to start bitching about the cost of installing the infrastructure so that he can run them.

If he gives me a call I might be able to chip in with his insurances, food bills and wardrobe.... possibly a cruise, a wind turbine and solar panels.

Don't even bother replying with hype and excuses as I am not freakin' interested. I have had enough of this total 5hit.

[Suff]

Not everyone (or even lots of people) will be in his position. Most of them will be able to get connected fairly easily.

You complain about his heat pump.... You paid more to my son's pellet burner (which cost £16k installed and he gets £300 per year, against pellets, for the first 5 years).

Whilst I don't have a lot of sympathy for his overall position, I do understand that it is government policy and companies should not be making a killing out of upgrades to facilitate that policy. I won't take finance so I can't afford 2x EV's which need this power infrastructure. Nor can I afford the thousands to buy a heat pump and the thousands more to get one installed.

Here in France it can cost up to €8k just to CONNECT your own solar to the grid. Of course you can get a grant to connect Their solar to the grid and they take all your energy and give you thruppence a year for the pleasure. But the connection is free.

I bought a pellet burner at the back end of last year. 37kw Just what I need to get off electricity for the hot water in winter and to give me much more flexible heating. Half price, €3,500. Excellent, Deal.

Except I can't get anyone to install it and the only person who might have had time started talking total bollocks about what was needed to connect it and in the order of €6,000 to install it into an EXISTING CH system. I did the math, €1k for me to install it and if the boiler breaks I can buy another one to replace it and still have €1.5k in the bank. IF it fails and can't be repaired.

All of this stuff will come out in the wash. Eventually.

Oh and a point to note. If his EV's cost more than the absolute base level VW ID.3 (just under £30k), your taxes didn't pay a cent for it. Also if it did come in at that cost, the credit is less than £3,000. The Government was paying more in the Scrap for New scheme after the financial crisis and for a HELL of a lot more cars. But we can ignore that because it was Brown and Cameron and nothing to do with "climate" or energy.

The whole thing can look negative, positive or neutral. It all depends on the filters on your view. Mine, today, is neutral. The Government certainly isn't spending enough to create a landslide of people to move. It is far more stick than carrot right now.

But that is just my filter.

Clearly yours, WM, is a LOT darker.

[Workingman]

I do not give a stuff how it is all dressed up or excused, I am bloody furious.

The government takes taxes from me, a pensioner on a fixed income, and hands them out in bribes for people to buy cars, which once the bribe is taken off, are multiple times my gross annual income.

Yes, that's right, once the bribe is removed these cars are still multiple times my bloody income - even the cheaper ones. You have to feel so sorry for these poor owners.

The government is doing the same thing with heat pumps.

This isn't just general taxation where we all chip in, even for things we do not use, this is stealing form the poor and targeted at things to give to the richer. Hand outs for the middle and upper income earners.

Meanwhile they have clawed back the £20 per week for those on the lowest incomes. Did I mention that they also broke the triple lock on my pension.

[Suff]

Yes I know WM, but that is a taxation issue in general. They screwed you, well I've been being screwed by countries for decades, tons of taxes, no intention of EVER living up to the responsibilities of paying back to ME for the money they took. Oh no, I'll never see a penny of the taxes they took from me, I won't be living there.

I understand completely about giving away money which they take from you on frivolous things. Then again I think the target list there is a hell of a lot bigger than EV subsidies. You can start with those who know how to work the system to get every penny out of it without paying a penny in.

It is crap and I agree, also I'm going to wind up in that situation some day and I won't like it either. But I would prefer they start by stopping the NHS handing out reconstructive surgery because people are "not happy with what they have done to their bodies". Or a host of other things our health service "gives" away whilst they practise "community support" for mental health patients which is little more than abandonment.

That being said, the UK Fossil fuel subsidies, in 2019, were £10.5bn. I am pretty damned sure that the "clean" energy subsidies are way, way, below that and it is every year.

If we want to be annoyed about the government hosing down the wall with subsidies to pay into company dividend, there are WAY more places to look than Green subsidies. Also green subsidies are a one time fix. Once they are up and running and continuing, the business doesn't need constant subsidies. Witness the reduction in solar and wind subsidies over time and the ongoing EV subsidy reductions.

Now if my pension were going into paying the fossil fuel industry to fork out dividends to shareholders I'd be pretty pissed too. Also it is without end, there is no time when the Fossil Fuel industry wants to stop taking subsidies.

I get you are mad. I get why. I just think your ire is a bit misdirected but with the crap in the press about EV and the green transition, it is easy to understand why.

As a recap, Tesla, like Google, has never paid a dividend and I doubt it intends to before they have reached their goal of 20% of world vehicle manufacturing each year. As another recap, Musk takes no salary from Tesla, he only has a stock options package. This latest stunt of him selling 10% of his shares was so he could fund the taxes for his latest crop of stock options which is his only salary. He now has more shares than before he started selling his 10%.

So who do you want sucking out your pension taxes? Some oil company with a CEO getting £10m a year and paying billions in dividends; or a company that puts every penny they can back into forcing the world to move away from damaging fossil fuel vehicles?

I know which way I'd like it.

Well actually I'd rather the Government didn't have to fund any of that and took less taxes. But that is not how the world works and I know what my priorities are.

[Suff]

Meanwhile.

Hyundai Motor closes engine development division

Hyundai Motor Group, South Korea’s top automaker, will stop developing new internal combustion engines in order to accelerate its transformation into an electric vehicle manufacturer.

VW has now upped their commitment to nearly €100bn. Everyone else is scrambling to catch up and overtake them. It is like the wild west all over again. The market has been almost stable for nearly 100 years and now it is a free for all as it transitions to EV from internal combustion.

It is now occurring to manufacturers that EV's are not just for mining subsidies. The penny has finally dropped. FF vehicles are going to be banned, meaning there is an opportunity to leapfrog those who will not engage in Battery EV (BEV).

Although the numbers are low for their goals.

Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp. unveiled a target to sell 1.7 million EVs worldwide in 2026, higher than 1 million units in 2025, given the rapid growth in the global EV market.

Tesla sold, globally, just short of 1m vehicles in 2021 (64k is very close at these levels). Tesla is on an average 50% growth spurt for the next decade, but will be faster in 2022 if Berlin ramps as expected. Meaning that Tesla will already have exceeded the Kia 2026 target in 2022 and has a good shot of exceeding their 2027 target too.

[Suff]

One of the advantages of being plugged into the climate lobby is that loads of people are looking at reams of stuff and are tracking stuff too.

Back in Feb 2019, just before the shorts tried to push Tesla shares (prior to the 5 way split) under $180 and bankrupt Musk, CleanTechnica published an article challenging the accepted wisdom that the incumbent auto manufacturers would simply retool and crush Tesla; making Tesla a good investment rather than the disaster that some pressure groups were presenting.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/25/th ... -industry/
The article talks about the Osborne effect and also a triple whammy including the S curve of technological change.

It is an interesting, highly technical, but very hard hitting article.

What is more apt, is that it was written in February 2019. The author had no clue that the pandemic was coming that the chip shortage was coming, the author presented a theoretical model (well three of them), with an eventual conclusion.

Two examples were given for the S curve. The first was the iPhone, perhaps not so relevant, but an indicator of the way this works. This is well within living memory and people should be able to remember what it did.

The second is beyond most living memory but is well within our recent history. It is the story of the automobile and how it transitioned transport.

In 1900, almost all city and short haul transport was by foot, by cycle or horse and carriage. By 1910 it was almost entirely automobile, there was an incredibly massive change. Also remember that fuel refineries didn't exist, fuel stations didn't exist and range of a vehicle was not much more than 100 miles.

To recap a bit.

Musk doesn't take an income, he borrows money with his shares as collateral, making him quite susceptible to attempts to force the share price down below the redemption level and force him to sell all his shares, or at least enough to make sure he was no longer the major shareholder.

These TeslaQ, Q in the stock market denotes a company on the path to bankruptcy, went to great lengths to promote ther position even falsifying data on private websites.

So, anyway, this article was created 4 months before Tesla shares (before the 5 way split), we're driven down to under $200, perilously close to the level at which Musk would have had to pay back his borrowings and lose most of his stock in Tesla.

It predicted a massive shift to EV by 2025. It predicted that Tesla (struggling to produce 250,000 vehicles in 2018), would produce and sell half a million EV's in 2020 and 750,000 in 2021.

TESLAQ howled with laughter, told everyone that the factory in Shanghai they had recently broken ground on would be a mud field when Tesla went bankrupt.

Roll forward nearly 3 years and we see the S curve is in full swing. Tesla produced their 500,000 vehicles in 2020, then produced just short of 1m vehicles in 2021. This is in a pandemic and with a crippling chip shortage.

Tesla completed Shanghai in 2019, expanded it to twice the size in 2020 and it had a production run rate of 850,000 vehicles a year in December 2021.

At the same time Tesla built and brought close to completion two more factories, even larger than the doubled Shanghai, by the end of 2021.

Much more importantly VW has decided that it is compete or die. They have claimed they are "all in" on EV, but their timeliness and factory transitions speak otherwise. VW is working on their own S curve but that won't work, they do not live in a vacuum.

Several pointers have already been hit in 2021. 10% EV penetration in the vehicle market with over 4% Battery EV (BEV). Bloomberg estimated 11% BEV by 2025 but they are growing at well over 50%.

Wait times are up to a year for EV and orders are growing month on month. VW EV capacity, globally, is fully sold out for 2022. Tesla is sold out for 6 months but Tesla capacity is several times VW and about to double again.

Chinese EV manufacturers who nearly went under in 2019-2022, are getting out of the rut, growing production and are hoovering up pent up demand which cannot be supplied elsewhere.

2025 will arrive in 2 short years. By that time Tesla should have over 3m vehicle capacity annually and be working on 4 more production units. Either whole new sites or expansion of Berlin and Texas plus one or two more new locations.

There is a paradigm shift going on in our world and most people are unaware of it. Automotive manufacturing employs tens of millions of people around the world when you factor in the supply industries.

Today the perception of EV amongst most mature adults is something like a souped up golf cart which doesn't burn fuel and doesn't go very far.

As these vehicles begin to flood the market, break into the taxi market, flood the car hire market (Hettz is ordering 100,000 Tesla model 3), people's experience and expectations are going to change and demand is going to skyrocket.

Yes there will be horror stories on the way of people who find it hard to plan their charging journey. That being said, demand for charging Infrastructure is going to have a darwinian effect on suppliers. Get a bad name for charging point availability and you are going to go bankrupt as hundreds of startups vie for business with the exploding EV charge market.

Many people I see post on a daily basis think it will be a done deal by 2025 with demand for new fossil burners dropping like diesel is today.

Whilst I have my doubts about 2 years from now, I do believe 2030 will see the clear and present demise of the mass market fossil fuelled vehicles and the rise of the cheap second hand EV with good viable years left in the battery.

Today, in the UK, the most popular fleet vehicle is EV. Fleet is half the second hand market. Meaning when supply meets demand in 2025 or so, by 3 years from then the market will be flooded with ex fleet second hand EV.

Back to Tesla stock price. After the 5 way split, the stock is worth around $1,000. Or $5,000 at the time of the TeslaQ push to bankrupt Musk.

Those analysts which pushed Tesla stock that high knew what they were doing. Tesla has a target of 20m vehicles per year by 2030. To put that into context, that is BOTH Toyota and VW group combined and will be 20% of the market at that time.

At that size, revenue alone would make Tesla the largest company in the world.

In order to stop Tesla doing that, every vehicle manufacturer in the world will have to about face, transition to EV fully and COMPETE.

Meaning your fossil burner becomes just a fossil.

Not to mention the fact that Tesla is a massive player in the solar market, the largest player in grid storage and grid storage software, one of the largest players in home electrical power storage.

Then, of course, there is the self driving AI which has already drawn level with Waymo and is about to overtake it and also the robot Tesla is going to create, driven by the self driving AI software, which will replace humans in manufacturing and supply chain logistics.

As a side note, Tesla is creating its ow insurance division which will expand to 8 US states this year. Tesla knows how people drive their cars and your insurance varies each month based on your safety score.

Tesla isn't going bust and now has the money to take the vehicle market by storm. They have set a target of average 50% production growth annually to 2030, which brings them to 20m vehicles. They are exceeding that target.

The only possible defence for the incumbent auto manufacturers is the S curve. All out attack on their core market, EV's. The only free slot is the mass market hatchback which Tesla has left open.

Our world is changing.

Wnjoy!