Nudging (and shoving)

[cromwell]

The biggest domestic issue in British politics is probably net zero. All the major parties have bought into it.

So how is the government going to get us to net zero? Well one strand is the way we are being nudged towards buying electric cars. Ever seen a bad review of any electric car? I haven't.

Another way is to put every difficulty in the way of people wanting to fly abroad on holiday. Planes give out lots of nasty gases. You may have seen the scenes of chaos at British airports recently. Why chaos? Well the airlines laid people off in the pandemic and now want to hire staff again, because they don't have enough staff to handle the surge in holiday makers.
But new staff need to be security checked. Who is in charge of the security checks? The government. The same government who don't want you flying in the first place.
The checks are supposed to take ten weeks. They are taking much longer. Maybe that is a coincidence.
That's if you can get to the airport. There's a problem with getting a passport, you see. The fast track application should be taking ten weeks too. It isn't, it's taking much longer. Who's in charge of passports? Ne'er mind, that's probably a coincidence.
Or maybe getting a driving licence or applying for a HGV licence from the DVLA? Ermmm.. well that's probably a coincidence as well.

But another way is this. To reduce our consumption of carbon emitting substances.
And how do you make people reduce their consumption? You make what they are buying dearer.
And all of a sudden we have expensive petrol, expensive gas and expensive electricity.

Maybe it's all a coincidence.

Or maybe politicians are knowingly deliberately making ordinary people worse off. Not that any of them are ever going to admit it.

[Suff]

Ever seen a bad review of any electric car? I haven't.

I have. But only in the specialist EV market sites. It is the major manufacturers, not the government, who are pushing these poor efforts at us for the highest money. The biggest tragedy today in that arena is the so called "self charging hybrid". Bullshit on wheels is what I call it.

I get your point. We are being forced down a path. Now here is the issue. Climate change is real, it is here and it is getting worse. ~50% of the people couldn't give a crap so long as it doesn't disrupt their drinking, gaming and binge TV show watching. Yet the government is on the hook to ensure the economy doesn't collapse and half the people don't die. It is their accountability, not the beer swilling hedonist who doesn't care, theirs and theirs alone.

What would you do? Say 'kit and let them destroy themselves?

If you think this is worse off, just imagine a world where food doesn't grow any more in half the growing lands, storms regularly flood out the major cities and mob rule starts to take over.

This is not conjecture. This is "don't act" fact. It is no longer up for discussion but the vast majority of the population think they can challenge every move to make sure this doesn't happen.

You believe you are being chased down an EV path for vehicles. FACT, the EU created a law which requires that the fleet average CO2 emissions for vehicles is 95g CO2 per km driven. Let me put that down to brass tacks in terms of gallons of petrol of diesel by energy and CO2 content. Not by efficiency or anything else. That is 75mpg for petrol and 90mpg for diesel. Wonder where you "self charging" hybrid came from? They claim 85mpg on the petrol. Oh only in very specific circumstances, <35mph in town. But they claim it and it is accepted.

What is the next major move car manufacturers are making? Is it Hybrid? Is it Hydrogen? Is it hell. They are working extremely hard on pure battery electric vehicles. Because the UK government mandated it? No, because the reality of the BS of their "self charging hybrid" is going to be "discovered" some time soon. They have no choice. Hydrogen is not and never was viable. It was just a great story to do nothing and say "it's too difficult". Now they cannot continue down that line and what did they choose? The only viable alternative. Battery EV.

Then you have Tesla. Ah, yes, "St Elon" says WM. Not me, WM.

News flash. Oh sorry it was quietly missed by the news, on purpose. Tesla, in Q1 2022, made more profit than either Ford or GM. Because the Government mandated EV's? NO. Because they make fast, quiet, efficient, long lasting vehicles which give you a charge price of 120mpg. When you pay for charging. Tell me how many places offer free fuel for fossil burners?? Did Tesla make their $3.3bn of profit on EV credits as has been claimed so long? No EV credits are falling as part of Tesla's profit base and even with a 100% one time boost in Q1, it was only $600m. If you think that Ford and GM don't manufacture for government subsidies, think again.

If you want a fast graduate course in the entitled elite and the way they manipulate us, spend £3 on Launched by Eric Berger. Read it. Recognise what is going on around you. Half the reason this government is having so much trouble is because it went Against the entitled money. They don't like it and they are determined to take back control. They didn't want us out of the EU, they don't want clean power, unless it is the Most expensive Nuclear power going, with huge Government "pork" and they sure as hell don't want extremely efficient UK homes which consume far less power. They also don't want heat pumps which use less energy than a gas boiler and the consumer pays less money to them.

Wake up, look around, realise who is holding your strings.

You want a Labour government? They are fully in the pocket of the entitled. It is the Clown that is not. Why has the "clown" had an easier ride with Ukraine? Because war is the biggest money-spinner for big money and the entitled. Labour didn't really want to help, they wanted to question. Less "pork", Johnson was a better bet. Now the contracts are cut and money is flowing, Johnson is the target again.

The cynicism is misplaced.

[Workingman]

Just don't mention population or building homes on arable land or managing our waterways better or reforesting or rewilding our uplands or maintaining peat lands and coastal wetlands and using more sympathetic but equally productive farming practises. Goodness no, they are difficult things to think of and do - they are not shiny, sparkly things that grab the attention.

No, stick with this utter crap. Very glossy, totally unachievable, but it gives the social justice warrior wonks something to do. You will not be surprised to learn that you could only be "consulted" by answering a series of closed questions online or attending the one and only one hour webinar or visiting the one and only city-wide presentation lasting 4.5 hours in the city centre - oh the irony. Imagine if all 800,000 of us had turned up! These people do not want to consult as they have already made their minds up.

[Workingman]

Yet the government is on the hook to ensure the economy doesn't collapse and half the people don't die

Then you might think that it would have spread the net wider, eh? But no. There is a very determined and well established and funded fanzone out there that is pro BEV, pro wind, pro solar, pro heat pumps, mildly anti nuclear, very definitely anti hydrogen (it is a real threat) and anti anything else that does not fit the agenda.

All other views are patronisingly silenced and brushed aside using only one side, their side, of the discussion. They are as much part of the problem as the beer swilling, takeaway loving, TV watching thick hedonists.

[cromwell]

I started to read the download WM, but it's standard council propaganda.

[Workingman]

I started to read the download WM, but it's standard council propaganda.

It is, but although we citizens "employ" these people we have no way of getting rid of them, and our councillors do not help. They are supposed to work for us yet so many of them have been in place for so many years they have become too chummy with these department heads so it is "as you were boys and girls".

The Leeds road repairs programme is 11 years behind schedule, yes 11 years(!), yet the management is still in place and the councillors have done nothing.

[cromwell]

That's not good.
In Pontefract Ropergate used to have parking. It was very useful. Just park up, nip round the corner to M&S and back again.
Until Wakey council decided to take a hand.
No parking there now. At least one small independent business has already closed on the street. The road width has been reduced by putting massive planters on one half of it.
I don't really know what they are trying to achieve. Before, it was a one way street which traffic could pass down. It still is, so nothing gained there. You just can't park there any more. The council said "It is hoped" that people will sit out there next to the planters. Maybe, but the road is unfortunately a wind tunnel!
Ah well.
In the scheme of things it's a small issue. Today my son in law (police officer) arrested some kids in a car who were carrying knives and axes. That takes some guts. People like him don't get paid enough.

[Suff]

Just don't mention population or building homes on arable land or managing our waterways better or reforesting or rewilding our uplands or maintaining peat lands and coastal wetlands and using more sympathetic but equally productive farming practises. Goodness no, they are difficult things to think of and do - they are not shiny, sparkly things that grab the attention.

No, stick with this utter crap. Very glossy, totally unachievable, but it gives the social justice warrior wonks something to do. You will not be surprised to learn that you could only be "consulted" by answering a series of closed questions online or attending the one and only one hour webinar or visiting the one and only city-wide presentation lasting 4.5 hours in the city centre - oh the irony. Imagine if all 800,000 of us had turned up! These people do not want to consult as they have already made their minds up.

I see you are right. We should fiddle whilst the world burns. Because that is what this suggestion means. These are mainly good things to do. But they are Nice to Have against the decarbonisation of power and transport.

As for the EV world. I have bad news for you. When Tesla get to 2.5m vehicles sold a year they will make more revenue than Ford at 3.9m vehicles and more profit than GM at 6m vehicles sold. That means Tesla can start selling at lower prices. Pushing EV even further into the mainstream and forcing all the others to compete. Competition? With their own EV's. Meaning you won't have a choice, you will have to buy EV. No government needed, this is now business dynamics.

I mentioned LIftOff because it is a very salient story. A start up company creating something which was "impossible" then making it saleable then taking half the world business away from the entire market. But taking away half the entire market was only the beginning, by the time they are finished (if they ever are), the entire remaining industry will be an irrelevant anecdote in history.

EV cars won't go quite the same way, but it will go a long way down that road. So stop worrying about the Government pushing to you EV. That boat has already sailed. Self driving and also automated mobile AI is coming next. Then, of course there is a company inserting nanoscale wires into brains so these brains can control machines.

You think governments are nudging. You are in the eye of the hurricane but you haven't noticed yet.

[cromwell]

Well I will say that you are right about Teslas Suff. I see more of them every day. Some are not even white!
Saw a very nice electric blue one the other day.
if the price comes down that changes a lot.
Most journeys in the UK are short journeys, so range anxiety isn't a thing for most everyday use (though long journeys will still be a pain).
If the average price starts to dip significantly below £30,000 and range continues to get better two of the EV's big problems will be solved.

[Suff]

If the average price starts to dip significantly below £30,000 and range continues to get better two of the EV's big problems will be solved.

As I have followed Tesla fairly closely since 2015, I can tell you that the current price of EV is a lot to do with transition and growth of the market and less to do with inherent costs of producing an EV itself. I'm sure that you are aware that if you buy a whole car made out of the parts, even at eBay prices, the car will cost you 3x to 10x what it cost to buy.

EV's are only just making it to volume manufacturing. I do mean "only just" as Tesla can now crank out nearly 1m vehicles a year from Shanghai. To put that into perspective, the Tesla Fremont factory in the US churned out 450k vehicles last year. That made it the most productive factory in the US. That is something worth thinking about. Wolfsburg in Germany, VW's premier plant, churns out 750k vehilces a year. Worlfsburg is the largest car manufacturing complex in the world. VW and others all have single factories with a production rate of around 250k to 350k per year. Nothing like the Tesla factory volume.

Then there is the profit angle. Ford makes about 12% net profit on their vehicles across the whole range and this is up from 10% because they pushed US prices. Tesla averages 20%. Which would lead you to think that Tesla could cut prices.

However Tesla spent €4bn on the land for their factory in Germany alone. The whole factory is a $10bn investment when fully built out. As is Texas, another $10bn. To reach their required 20m vehicles per year, Tesla will need to build at least 6 more factory complexes of the same size. That's another $60bn.

VW keeps upping it's spend, they are now at €90bn committed over the next 10 years. All the other car makers are looking to spend between $25bn to $45bn to transition their existing facilities.

With that level of spend, EV's are going to be expensive for quite a while. Especially Tesla's. But when Tesla has stopped finishing building factories the 32% margin and 20% profit will go to price cuts.

On the range everyone is looking to get more power into their vehicles for less cost. Some are trying way out wacky lab based experiments, others are working with the technology that currently exists and trying to cram more power in that way.

Some result in rather spectacular fires. Others are so expensive that they're impossible to build or sell.

Tesla has gone a middle road. Initially using cells which were built for IT stuff but with extreme QA. 100% QA with a single dent in a cell being cause for rejection. Now they have changed the cell dimensions and changed the internal connectors to increase the density. They will be able to increase battery power by 60% to 100% in the same space. Weight is lower too because of less cell wall for the amount of power.

All of this will continue for the coming decade. Then it will be an entirely different world. Current innovations in battery tech will be maturing, charging infra will be mature, power grids will be stronger with much more oversupply.

Musk has never lacked for vision in the fields he chose to get into. Much as when his struggling space company was trying to get into orbit with dwindling funds and too many issues, he had the design team, simultaneously, working on the Falcon 9 engine, getting 9 of them to play as one, the F9 rocket body, designs and plans to land the rocket after use and, to top it off, his Starship or "BFR" as it was called at first, rocket for getting to Mars.

Tesla isn't just working on new factories, a better battery, articulated trucks, a self driving computer and an exaflop AI training grid. It turns out they are working on a self driving taxi without controls, a more affordable and available car, full body casting instead of just front and rear, an ATV, a robotic device to work in factories and other places too. God knows what they'll come up with next. The only thing I am not expecting is a flying car.