Britain signs defence/aid treaties with Finland and Sweden

[Suff]

Boris Johnson on Wednesday said he had agreed new deals with Sweden and Finland to bolster European security, pledging to support both countries' armed forces should they come under attack.

Johnson signed the new declarations, described by Britain as "a step-change in defence and security cooperation", during visits to both Sweden and Finland on Wednesday.

"What it says is that in the event of a disaster, or in the event of an attack on either of us, then we will come to each other's assistance, including with military assistance," Johnson said at a news conference in Helsinki.

It appears that Finland has felt vulnerable about the 1 year window between signing and ratification. This treaty binds the UK into military action should Finland or Sweden be attacked during that time.

[TheOstrich]

We are definitely going to have to look at the Military Budget going forward now, otherwise the only deterrent we'll be able to provide the Swedes and Finns is to help them chuck snowballs at the Russians.

[Workingman]

There is a madman on the loose who has said that there will be no nuclear free status in the Baltic if Sweden and Finland join NATO. There will be nuclear and hypersonic deployment if they do, and he has the means to do it. He has already set his nuclear forces on special alert.

So what does our photo-op PM do... he pokes him with a stick!?

The nuclear war clock "The Doomsday Clock" now sits at 100 seconds to midnight, the nearest it has ever been, and we have two madmen in a willy-whanging competition.

[Suff]

Well Putin now knows that it will be a fight if he wants to start something with either Finland or Sweden.

Better out and on the table. Because if we didn't and the madman got the idea we would not back them up (we always would), then if there is the slightest chance he thought he could get away with it, it would mean a major war.

Finland is joining NATO, no matter what. That is the consequence of the Ukraine war and Putin has nobody to blame but himself. If he's going to attack Finland for doing that, then he'd better know that it won't be Finland on their own. He now knows that. If he attacks anyway, that means he was always going to and nothing we do is going to trigger it.

So, no, we don't have two madmen. Only one.

BTW I'm in Lincolnshire. The RAF training regimen has stepped up significantly from last month. I hear it at all hours. There is clearly a concern.

[Workingman]

If Finland was always going to join NATO and we would always back it up, even if it didn't, then Putin already knew that as a fact. He could have moved troops and arms up to the border ages ago, but didn't. The Ukraine is a smokescreen. However, now that our own madman, yes, there are two, has poked him I do expect to see some movements.

Unfortunately, with the hard boys and girls, the hawks and the nutjobs playing war games on their X-boxes, all gobbing off about giving Putin a "bloody nose" or "nuking" him, some movements are now guaranteed.

[TheOstrich]

Well Putin now knows that it will be a fight if he wants to start something with either Finland or Sweden.
Better out and on the table. Because if we didn't and the madman got the idea we would not back them up (we always would), then if there is the slightest chance he thought he could get away with it, it would mean a major war.

I concur. Stand up to a bully, and ensure he knows he is going to be whacked with a big stick if he starts anything amiss.

BTW I'm in Lincolnshire. The RAF training regimen has stepped up significantly from last month. I hear it at all hours. There is clearly a concern.

Ha, well, yes! Last night around 22:00 it was very interesting. Flightradar24 was showing no less than 7 RAF Eurofighter Typhoons openly on patrol above East Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and Norfolk. I have never seen that number on display before. All the aircraft were identifiable with callsigns, so training as you say.

At the same time:
(a) a USAF Stratotanker was flying bumps and circuits just off the Yorkshire Coast, so it would be logical to assume they were practicing air-to-air refuelling.
(b) an RAF Voyager from Brize Norton was doing a similar circuit in the same general area - again, it's a refuelling aircraft (although Flightradar was showing it as a UK-liveried example, which would make it a passenger jet variant, so I guess that was an error), and
(c) a Canadian Air Force Hercules transited the same area en-route from Eastern Europe back home. I suspect that was coincidental.

[Suff]

I'm not advocating that we go to war or Nuke someone. I'm advocating that we look prepared, are prepared and communicate that we are prepared; to respond to any unwarranted acts of aggression against our allies.

In that way things are open and above board. Last night I was reading about the Council of Europe, yes the one which came before the EU. The Russian federation had it's voting rights revoked in the wake of the Crimea invasion and annexation. Then those rights were given back without any return of territory, without any reparations and without any admission of guilt for the action.

This is the kind of messaging which causes wars. Telling someone that if they are going to throw a war you are going to come and participate is a long, Looooong way from ramping up a situation.

The reason Putin went into Ukraine was, I believe, largely driven by this Council of Europe decision to reinstate voting rights. In other words, if you just grab what you want, succeed, hold onto it for long enough and refuse to give it back; then those who should know better will eventually roll over. They won't get involved and they will, eventually, let it go.

Ooooops. Yes we did get involved and we get more and more involved as time goes on. Yes we did throw them out of the Council of Eruope, not just rescind voting rights. Yes we are going to keep on supporting Ukraine and No we are NOT going to just let Russia walk back into our lives and make loads of money out of us.

This time Russia has certainly pushed it way too far and now the EU is left with no choice but to cut themselves off from Russian oil and gas. Leaving Russia no choice but to look at selling it to China because there is no other large economy in the world who will take it.

This time Russia will not be reinstated to G8 or any of the other privileges it would normally garner from the size of its economy. This time Russia has gone back to the days of the USSR in its relationship with the UN. OK they can't lose their veto or their place on the UN security council, but they have no friends and no influence.

It is relatively easy to track the moves by China to set themselves up to "land grab" the South China sea and Taiwan, in the wake of the Crimea annexation and the lack of action from the West and NATO. Simply doing more and more, not aggressive, lots of words, but putting the capability in place ready to make the grab. That rhetoric is now gone. They now know, push that little bit too far and the consequences will not be worth taking.

Taiwan is firmly on the back burner for China as is the South China sea. The tolerance of the rest of the world has been used up by Russia and Putin, Chinese action will garner very swift response indeed.

Hence standing firm with Finland and Sweden is not a mistake nor an escalation of the situation. It is a requirement. Fortunately the UK has a government which realises that. The US may talk a good game, but the UK is within true striking range. We have less margin for talk and a lot more margin for action and "messaging".

[Workingman]

I concur. Stand up to a bully, and ensure he knows he is going to be whacked with a big stick if he starts anything amiss.

Ah, the old "bully" cliché. FFS this is not some school playground spat, this is a country with the world's biggest nuclear arsenal. It is also worth noting that Putin is not the only bully, there are others in his 'gang' ready to step forward if he is somehow got rid of.

I am not saying that Sweden and Finland should not be in NATO, simply that it is an unwise move in the present circumstances.

Look at a map. From St Petersburg in the south to Murmansk in the north there are only a few population centres bigger than villages. There are only a handful of crossing points along the border in the Karelia region and most of them are dirt tracks. The roads in the are are little better than our B roads and certainly not suitable for the rapid movement of heavy artillery, APCs, tanks or large numbers of troops. The same is true in the neighbouring Archangelsk and Volgoda oblasts.

Finland is not under threat of invasion any time soon.

However, Russia does have mobile missile units and silos in the east of Russia capable of hitting the whole of Western Europe. This is one bully that could giver back a "bloody nose" in spades.

It's time to talk. I know that does not sit well with some, but it is better than sticking one's head between one's legs and kissing one's arse goodbye, which is more likely where the "bloody nose" or poking with sticks will get us.

[Suff]

In the present situation talking to Putin is as useful as talking to Hitler was in 1939.

[Workingman]

Ok, I give up. Given that you have offered no alternatives I'll leave you roughie-toughies to lead us to a European war or WW3. Let's hope it is not nuclear, eh?