Scottish Nationalist

[Suff]

Sorry I've been both sick (ate something that disagreed with me) and travelling. When I get back to fit I'll come back.

[medsec222]

Hope you are feeling a little better this morning Suff

[miasmum]

Sorry to hear that Suff, get well soon x

[Workingman]

GWS, Suff, not much worse than a dose of Montezuma's revenge when travelling.

[Kaz]

Get better soon, it's horrible having to travel whilst ill - especially in the heat.

[Suff]

Thanks guys. At least I got some sleep and had an easy journey to the AirBnB, set up most of my kit and have managed to see my daughter and get back ready for some more sleep.

I've been dieting and had lost 9kg in two weeks. It didn't help the whole sickness and recovery bit. I've been eating just to put some energy back into me.

I'll get onto the reply tomorrow.

[Workingman]

So will I.

[Suff]

This paragraph below is where I get the statement about Scottish Oil. Please remember it is written from a standpoint of Scotland within the United Kingdom and not without.

Given that Scotland is not a sovereign state, it has no effective maritime boundaries; and any claims Scotland may assert are subsumed as part of claims made by the United Kingdom. However, due to the existence of two separate legal systems in Great Britain — that of Scots law pertaining to Scotland and English law pertaining to England and Wales — constitutional law in the United Kingdom has provided for the division of the UK sector of the North Sea into specific Scottish and English components.[6] The Continental Shelf Act 1964 and the Continental Shelf (Jurisdiction) Order 1968 defined the UK North Sea maritime area to the north of latitude 55 degrees north as being under the jurisdiction of Scots law[7] meaning that 90% of the UK's oil resources was considered under Scottish jurisdiction.[8][9] In addition, section 126 of the Scotland Act 1998 defined Scottish waters as the internal waters and territorial sea of the United Kingdom as are adjacent to Scotland.[10] This was subsequently amended by the Scottish Adjacent Waters Boundary Order 1999 which redefined the extent of Scottish waters and Scottish fishery limits.[11][12]

These are UK acts. This means they apply equally to all 4 parties to the United Kingdom. Should Scotland secede from Great Britain and therefore from the United Kingdom too, these laws and decisions would not cease to exist. Rather they would transfer to the newly separated countries.

Now the Barnett formula comes in here.

Nevertheless, a Scottish share of North Sea oil is never formally alluded to as part of Scotland's net fiscal position and is treated by HM Treasury as extra-regio resources.[14] The BBC economist Evan Davis however reported prior to the 2007 Scottish Parliament election that the Barnett formula already allows Scotland to sustain higher levels of per capita public spending relative to the rest of the UK, which is approximately equivalent to its disproportionately high annual contribution of tax revenues to the central UK Treasury [b]from Oil production[/b].[15] However Scotland's per capita spending growth, relative to the rest of the UK, has in recent years, been nominally reduced by the operation of the Barnett formula, in order to bring public spending levels into line with the UK average, in a phenomenon that had been dubbed the "Barnett Squeeze".

You can go to the wiki article on the Barnett formula and look up the fact that, over time, it is trending back to the same disproportionate level of funding in England as it was attempting, for a short time, to resolve in the 1970's.

Now the point is this. When it comes to Nationalism it doesn't matter whether you believe this or I believe this, it matters whether the person in the street believes that a) it is true and b) that they are being shafted whilst being told they are getting more than they are worth.

I know for a fact that most English would not like it for one instant. In fact I'm pretty sure it has a large part to do with the eventual Yes vote to leave the EU. When it was put under a microscope it became clear to all who wanted to listen that the rest of the EU were partaking of our largesse, without a word of thanks, then stabbing us in the back thereafter. In fact they took our money then tried to make it sound like we were the ingrates and that we would rue the day should we dare to exit this "most benign" union.

See the parallels?

Unlike the English the Scots are taught the difference between English and Scottish law. They are well aware of areas of jurisdiction and the fact that Scottish law only applies in Scottish territorial ground. They know that if 90% of Scottish oil sits under Scottish law, then that oil is on Scottish land. A legal determination made by the full UK government more than 50 years ago and carrying full legal precedent in both areas of UK law.

So back to "do you or I believe this". It doesn't matter. It matters what the Scots believe and they are being actively made aware of the above and they are NOT in the slightest amused.

The ONLY key thing I see holding back a swift Yes vote in an Indyref2 is the EU situation. 36% of Scots voted Yes to get out of the EU. Those Scots are not going to vote for independence and then simply wind up back in the EU. Much as you might not think so, the Scots who want out of the EU really do like the UK more than the EU and are more willing to put up with the shenanigans of Westminster. Especially with Hollyrood now fully operational.

[Workingman]

Suff, I understand that you do not like things the way they are and want change - nothing wrong with that. Unfortunately you and the SNP are using Brexit tactics to achieve those aims. Bitch and moan for decades. Use myths, falsehoods, lies and spin to "win" people over. It also works to your advantage that many Scots have a romantic version of history calling up Willie Wallace (Braveheart), Bannockburn, Robert the Bruce, Bonnie Prince Charlie, Scotland the Brave. Flower of Scotland and so on.

The songs are uplifting, but also quite sad.

A bigger problem is how independence is presented in the glossy brochures. Vote, come the day; Utopia, come the dawn. Nothing could be further from the truth. The glossy brochure version does not exist.

The truth is that come independence many things will need addressing, both internally, bilaterally within the UK, and internationally; negotiations could take years... or longer. Things are not as you present them but I am happy to let you live in your fantasy world.

See this,this and tihs, for alternative opinions.

[Suff]

Actually I think Brexit tactics were taken from SNP tactics as the SNP came first.

I'm always willing to read other opinions. But that's the problem they are opinions. In the case of the jurisdiction on North Sea oil, that has had a legal determination in the UK government and that's a done deal. Opinions don't count.

I do understand the other viewpoints, but take the Westminster angle. That one doesn't bear up under scrutiny.

Average UK taxation to GDP is 32.8%. Total GDP for the UK is £2,600bn and Scotland is ~10% of UK GDP. There or thereabouts. Now if you look at the prior information I gave you see that the Treasury counts north sea oil as extra regio revenue. In other words, Scottish GDP does not include oil revenues and, in fact, is 10% of the whole which includes Oil revenues.

So at 10%, Scotland's GDP is £260bn. At 32.8% Scottish Tax revenue is £85.2bn. Now whilst £12bn in Oil revenues is a considerably larger portion of the Scottish budget than it is the UK budget, it is not half. In fact ALL Oil revenues would be on top of the existing GDP that Scotland generates. Because, remember, the GDP Scotland currently generates is Without Oil revenues.

So when this article witters on about the "damage" that Oil revenue drops may do to the Scottish Budget, it completely ignores the fact that a separate Scotland already pays its way. Scotland is generally 10% to 10.9% of UK GDP and receives between 10% and 11% of UK government funding.

This leaves Scotland, separated, with additional resources to a potential tune of 14% More GDP to deal with the separation and set up of new Government structures. In UK terms (minus Scotland), this is the equivalent of funding to the tune of £327bn. Or pretty much the amount the UK spent on Covid.

When putting up these opinions, it's useful to check the numbers. Because they don't add up and BIG numbers are thrown around to scare people. Without the truth behind the numbers.

It's just irksome. I'd just love for us all to stay together and get on with it. It is the extreme lack of respect shown in these "opinions" which drives the range of emotions from dissatisfaction to sheer helpless rage.

Just to be clear, I won't be voting in any new Indyref and, if I did, I'd be voting No. Sturgeon cannot be trusted with the Scottish heritage and future and making the break with her at the helm, before things have settled and Scots are thinking clearly with clear evidence, is, IMO, daft.