Pressure on Germany over Ukraine arms

[cromwell]

Having shown Putin the big stick, now would be a good time to offer him a negotiated settlement.

My thoughts too.

In other news massive corruption has been exposed in the Ukraine and several ministers sacked by Zelinski.

[Workingman]

Having shown Putin the big stick, now would be a good time to offer him a negotiated settlement.

My thoughts too.

Mine too, but the hawks see such a stance as caving in or weakness, but it is not. It is one of pragmatism.

There was a time when conflicts, either internal (civil wars) or between nations, were largely decided by a decisive victory - whether by the righteous or wrongdoer - leading to a surrender by the loser. That changed greatly in the 19th and 20th centuries where negotiations and diplomacy brought peace - Crimean war, WW1 & 2 (to a certain extent) Korea, Vietnam, Bosnia, El Salvador and so on.

I would prefer to give it a try rather than all the death and destruction as both sides fight to a standstill - modern kit or no modern kit.

[Suff]

Mine too, but the hawks see such a stance as caving in or weakness, but it is not. It is one of pragmatism.

Giving part of your country to an aggressor is not pragmatism. It is defeatism. Talks mean that Ukraine is willing to give part of the country to Russia.

Just which part of the UK would you give to Russia???

[Workingman]

Talks mean that Ukraine is willing to give part of the country to Russia.

They mean nothing of the sort, They are a way to a ceasefire from where other talks / negotiations can take place. Nobody knows where they might lead.

Ukraine might accept that in 1954 under Khrushchev (A Ukrainian) the Crimea was transferred from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR) to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (UkrSSR) and let it go back in exchange for [something]. Or it could be that Russia accepts that Crimea is now part of Ukraine and hands it back, also in exchange for [something]. It could well take a while for things to be resolved, but it is better than both side kicking the sh1t out of each other for ever and a day, especialy when it could lead to escalation and a wider war.

Just which part of the UK would you give to Russia???

Ah that old and jaded hypothetical chestnut. Pathetic, and not worth repsponding to.

[Suff]

They mean nothing of the sort, They are a way to a ceasefire from where other talks / negotiations can take place. Nobody knows where they might lead.

You know perfectly well that is not true. Russia is not going to leave Ukraine unless it is removed from Ukraine. Any deal or talks or cease fire will lead to nothing but more war in the future.

You don't fix territorial aggression and outright war with talks of this kind or with cease fires. How well did the cease fires work in Syria? Who is in control in Syria? Cease fire after cease fire and what was the result? In this case a civil war with one side supported by the west and the other by Russia. A true proxy war.

If it was not already clear, Syria taught us that talks and cease fires serve nothing so long as both sides refuse to back down or cede any gains.

Did we learn nothing from Syria? If we want this to end someone has to Win. My preference is Ukraine because if Ukraine wins we won't be fighting this same war, somewhere else, a decade from now.

[Workingman]

Oh, I know, let's go 'strawman' and invoke the Syrian civil war with different internal combatants supported by many external countries and terrorist organisations and try to make it relevant to Ukraine. It is nothing like, as you well know.

The strawman withered and collapsed.

[Suff]

No, I was giving an example of where cease fire's lead when the protagonists and defendants have no intention of staying with the status quo.

You have a different opinion. Fine. It doesn't mean I'm wrong though.

[cromwell]

The escalation continues. Not only with tanks, but now the Ukranians are wanting fighter jets and long range missiles. From their point of view they might also want boots on the ground, but if that happens and foreign armies commit to fight Russia, then what?

There may be a quick end to the war. But if it settles down into a protracted slog expect the Germans and others to get twitchy and demand peace talks.

[Suff]

Right now both sides are preparing for a spring offensive. The outcome of that offensive will determine where this conflict is going.

Russia has the possibility to bring in better armour, more and better rockets and artillery and more air fighters and bombers. If they do this, then the latest NATO MBT moves can be counteracted and it will move back to status quo and a long slog.

On the other hand if Russia does not change up the balance then the new NATO weapons can make a decisive change and Ukraine could open a large breach in the Russian lines and then start to roll them up laterally.

One of the least appreciated factors in the latest round of equipment is the US bradleys. These are both tank killers and soft vehicle killers, they are armed for both. Their primary role is reconnaissance but they can also widen and strengthen a breach in enemy lines.

The Western actions are visible to all. What Russia is doing is mostly hidden. So we will have to wait until the spring campaign to see how this plays out.