We could be in for a scorcher...

[Workingman]

... so says the Met Office. It is down to a weather event called the El Niño in the Pacific and it is now underway. The scorcher could be this year or the next.

I was stationed in Germany in 1975 and Europe had similar weather to ours last year - hot and dry. It is doing the same this year. I returned home for my fitter's course in the October and in 1976 the February, March and April were almost the same as we have just had. I remember April being virtually identical with cold days, some frosts, and even snow flurries. The RAF used to turn the heating off between April 1st and October 1st and April was so cold many of us went out to buy electroc heaters to keep our rooms warm in the evenings. This year I am still using the heating on some nights.

Then came May and the heat started, and it just went on and on.

Please let it happen again.

[meriad]

Am I allowed to put in a request for some rain as well? Just enough that my allotment manages to actually grow stuff and the pond doesn't dry out completely

[TheOstrich]

Last summer, I bought 9 F1 grafted tomato plants at Waitrose - assorted cherry, plum and salad - and they went absolutely berserk in the heatwave; we had pushing 200 fruits.
Waitrose have just started stocking them this year - 3 plants for £12 - but they looked a bit leggy, greenhouse reared, and with the current cold nights down here (yes, our heating is still on too!), I held off buying them for the moment.

If we get a summer like last summer, they'll do us proud. The water butt's currently full, Meriad.

[Suff]

... so says the Met Office. It is down to a weather event called the El Niño in the Pacific and it is now underway.

Interesting statement. ENSO is one of the markers I monitor as it has a dramatic effect on summer Arctic ice.

Well, that was quick! Just two months ago I was writing about La Niña for what seemed like the 97th month in a row, and then by March La Niña had departed. Today we’re hoisting an El Niño Watch, meaning that conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño conditions within the next 6 months. In fact, there’s a 62% chance of El Niño conditions for the May–July period.

Enso is currently neutral with a 63% chance of swinging positive.

I never knew a 63% chance was "under way". But let me not gainsay the met office....

[Kaz]

[Workingman]

Suff, I was a bit loose with my description. The man from the Met meant that the 'flip' from La Nina to El Niño was underway. Sea temps off Chile and Peru, Niño1&2, are already on the rise so El Niño could start proper any time from now to the autumn of this year (80% chance) hence the hedging of bets for a scorcher in 2023 or 2024.

The below were issued by NOAA on the 12th of April.

Alert levels.


Sea temps above / below average.


Neutral in Niño3 (mid Pacific) as of March, but the flip looks well underway in the eastern Pacific - Niño 1&2. Get that order for 100 ltr of sun block 1,000 in sharpish!

[Suff]

It is likely but I think Hunga Tonga delayed it.

The scientists that researched the impact of the water plume into the mesosphere have not completed their studies yet.

But, as you say, it is on track to change. It is more a case of whether it happens this summer or next.