UK breaks the next taboo on Ukraine arms

[Suff]

Watch this space.

Having missiles is one thing, delivering them is another.

Agreed. However now that the US has unblocked F16, the EU countries which have Russian jets they can give to Ukraine without extra training are unlocked. Yet again.

That should be the next major step change.

[Workingman]

EU countries which have Russian jets they can give to Ukraine without extra training are unlocked. Yet again.

EU countries which have Russian jets they can give to Ukraine without extra training are unlocked. Yet again.

Less than 200 planes exist (Poland, Bulgaria and Ukraine), and over 100 are already in the Ukrainian Air Force. They are nearly all "Soviet Era" Mig-29s and Su-27s which first entered service in 1983 and 1985 respectively. I suspect that once Poland and Bulgaria joined NATO supplies of spares stopped. Those still flying are probably doing so on cannibalised others. Also remember that many of these aircraft will be air defence variants and not fighter bombers or dedicated ground attack aircraft capable of delivering Storm Shadow or other missiles.

Russia can call on over 750 later marques such as the Mig-31 - 34 and Su-30 - 35 plus dedicated long-range bombers and cruise missiles.

It is all a bit one-sided... even with F-16s.

[Workingman]

As for F-16s...

When an ex Air Vice-Marshal says these types of things I tend to give them credence...

There are two factors to consider for the F-16s plan to fall into place.

First, training must take place to ensure pilots can fly the aircraft.

And second, it's important to think about how the F-16s will actually be delivered.

Bell added: "Although there's lots of countries operating them because it's so expensive, nobody has more aircraft than they need, and nobody could afford to give to 20 to 30 of these platforms to Ukraine."

He adds: "They're just too expensive. You generally buy what you can afford and that's not enough for everything you want to have them for.

"So none of the nations will be able to get rid of excess jets. But I suspect what will happen is that they will need to focus on a commonality of jets.

"So who operates a certain block and a certain age of aircraft and see whether there is some shuffling behind the scenes that different countries can give each other aircraft so that you get a common aircraft that comes to Ukraine."

And then there is this...

US officials have estimated that it could take 18 months for training and delivery of the jets.

And....

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said on Wednesday: “This is not about gifting weapon systems.

"This is about gifting a platform. If anyone follows Formula One, you don’t just gift a car, you have to gift a pit team."

We are a long, long, time away from seeing F-16s with Ukrainian markings taking to the air.

[Suff]

This is not about how long the F16 will take to enter service in Ukraine. This is about unlocking both long range missiles and "aircraft" to launch them. There are plenty of aircraft which can launch them within the former eastern bloc EU states. These planes were blocked from being sent to Ukraine by Germany and the US.

That is no longer so .

How long it takes for F16 's to get into service in Ukraine is relevant, but far less relevant than how long it will take to give them Russian jets they can use right now.

[Workingman]

This is about unlocking both long range missiles and "aircraft" to launch them. There are plenty of aircraft which can launch them within the former eastern bloc EU states.

No, there are not, that's the fallacy.

Most former Warsaw Pact countries have long since given up their ancient Soviet Era aircraft. Only Serbia in Europe still has a working air force of note, and theirs are also older units. Most of the smaller countries: Slovenia, Czechia, Hungary, Croatia etc. have next to no air forces and they are now western oriented.

I try to ignore what third-rate journalists and "Hawks" are telling me and go for what those in the know are saying, especially as I spent 18 years working on these things. Facts not fiction.

Also, if Russia sees modern western aircraft being deployed in Ukraine it could decide to move from a ground war to an air war where it really does have an advantage in numbers. It has high-altitude supersonic "nuclear capable" bombers as well as air, ground and sea launched long-range and precisely guided cruise missiles, some of them hypersonic.

Its ground forces might be poor and relying on virtually untrained conscripts. That is light years away from its main air force.

[Suff]

I thought I was out of date.... But....

Mig Mig29 can carry and deploy ground attack weapons as well as the SU24. Certainly some modification is required and only the SU24 has currently had the modifications made to date. But in war that moves much faster. Also we have to remember that Ukraine used to have their own aircraft industry so in country modification is not impossible.

Poland has a fleet of 29 Mig29 aircrat and received approval from Germany, last month, to be able to export the Mig29's that they had bought from Germany.

29 is not insignificant. According to wikipedia whilst Russia has 260 in inventory there are less than 150 actually operating right now and 24 of those are naval versions.

The Polish Mig29's are upgraded with a lot of NATO hardware so are not flying with significantly outdated equipment and will likely be more easily reconfigured to launch storm shadown. Whilst the SU24 is a longer range ground attack aircraft, the Mig29 is multirole, like the typhoon and two storm shadow are well within the 4 Tonnes of ordnance the Mikoyan variant can deliver.

Whilst Poland did send 8 of these aicraft to Ukraine, the German approval was required to send the whole fleet. This was not given until Mid April 23 and you can guarantee it was in response to the UK and US Change of attitude on the level of weapons we are now giving to Ukraine. Germany has not taken a lead in providing aid and military assistance to Ukraine. More adopting the NATO "good neighbour" approach of following on.

[Workingman]

I think I'll stick with what the experts, a former AV-M, the US DoD, the UK MoD and others, are saying; namely that it is no easy task.

[Suff]

I think I'll stick with what the experts, a former AV-M, the US DoD, the UK MoD and others, are saying; namely that it is no easy task.

I never said it would be easy. Just that sending the missiles opened up the option. Until then it was closed.