Ebola game changer?

[Workingman]

A man in Texas has been diagnosed with ebola, the fist of its kind on US soil.

He entered the US on the 20th of September, symptoms became apparent on the 24 th and he was admitted and isolated on the 28 th. Work is now being carried out to identify all people he had been in contact with.

US health authority spokesman:

.......... it is possible a family member who came in direct contact with the patient may develop Ebola in the coming weeks. But "the bottom line here is I have no doubt that we will control this importation, this case of Ebola, so it does not spread widely in this country," he added. "We will stop it here."

Let's hope that they find all of the man's contacts and that the above comment does not turn out to be too optimistic.

[KateLMead]

We need to recognise the dangers we face with the open door policy for all in sundry entering this country. TB has spiralled,
AIDS. And other communicable illnesses.

[Workingman]

The way the Americans deal with this will be watched very closely. The man could have been out and about for four days, minimum, before he was put into isolation, but it is not clear from the news. Symptoms can show as early as two days or as late as 21 days, but usually after 5-7 days. It does not give the Americans much time to round up all contactees.

[Suff]

Remember we're not talking about people who were in the same room as him. We're talking about people who may have exchanged fluids with him. Although that could include sneezing....

This simplifies the situation somewhat.

[Rodo]

Putting your hand on an escalator rail.................pushing a button in a lift...............opening the door coming out of a public toilet...............holding the rail when standing in a tube train..................pushing the button on a pedestrian crossing..................pushing the door open in a supermarket...................tapping your PIN into the ATM.............and so on.............all places where you could pick up somebody's body fluids as well as ordinary bacteria and viruses. It doesn't bear thinking about. As Americans are now finding out, it only takes one and something like that could spread like wildfire.

[Kaz]

I'm with Rodo, this is very worrying People who came into contact with him in the ways described could have travelled anywhere by now...............

[Diflower]

It doesn't spread like that, it's not something that stays alive on doorknobs etc. - only by direct contact with body fluids.
It's not definite it can be spread by sneezing but obviously that could be a big problem.

[Suff]

Ebola is an extremely fragile virus. I guess there is a reason why it lives in the jungle and mainly stays there. It is vulnerable to hot/dry climates with a lot of sunlight. It normally passes by direct transfer of blood. Even sneezing is not guaranteed and would probably only be a problem in the latter stages of the illness by which time the person would be in quarantine.

If you look at the figures it is already beginning to burn itself out. Senegal remains at a total of 1 cases with 0 deaths. Nigeria has reduced from a total of 22 cases to 20 in the last month and deaths have increased from 7 to 8.

In Sierra Leone the average deaths for September are 20 per day. Yet the total deaths for the last 4 reported days, was 11. Despite the number of cases rising by 99 in that time. In fact, as I said at the outset of this, the death rates are beginning to fall rapidly. Sierra Leone will be down to 25% deaths to cases by now. Even Liberia is down to a 53% mortality rate.

If Liberia are sensible enough to keep on having curfews and keep removing the dead from homes and moving the infected into the hospitals, then this could burn itself out in 4 to 6 weeks. So long as everyone is free to continue wandering around and interacting, then it will continue. But the ratio of deaths to infections will continue to fall as the virus passes from iteration to iteration.

[Workingman]

Di is correct about it being passed by direct contact with bodily fluids and includes kissing, sex, vomit, contact with soiled clothing, and so on. Whether it is waxing or waning in Africa is neither here nor there.

The reason I think the American situation will be carefully watched is because this is the first time it has appeared 'in the wild' in a first world country. How it is dealt with could inform on future outbreaks. The facilities are obviously there to deal with those who become infected, identifying and isolating them is another matter.

The infected man in question was out and about for at least four days and it is a bit of a surprise that his name has not been released. There will be people out there who came into contact with him and do not know it. My reaction, if I was one of them, and his identity was released would be to get myself for treatment asap, shunning contact with anyone and everyone in the process..

[cruiser2]

Suff,
That is very interesting reading. Those facts have not been widely published.
What Rodo has said is very pertinent as i have seen the result of tests on phones, bank notes and coins, and other sites were different people have access and can touch.