The weekend polls will be interesting.

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Re: The weekend polls will be interesting.

Postby Suff » 02 Jun 2017, 13:08

Workingman wrote:Can you see why I do not trust her?


Indeed. Now who do you trust more, of the viable candidates, to do a cleaner job? We have 6 days to choose.

We only get the next 2 years to sort this out then it's set for a very long time.
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Re: The weekend polls will be interesting.

Postby Workingman » 02 Jun 2017, 17:10

I am becoming quite concerned about the election and all it portends.

The two latest polls from YouGov and Ipsos MORI put the Tory lead at just 5 points. Now we know that the pollsters have got things spectacularly wrong over the past few elections, but what if they are back on track and working to the traditional ±3%?

A Tory "win" in the region of 5 points could see them back in power with a reduced majority, or even worse, trying to work as a minority government. Now, we can argue till the cows come home whether that would be good, bad or indifferent for the running of the country. What we surely cannot argue over is the disaster it would be for Brexit negotiations? It would be a calamity of unimaginable proportions.

I am now beginning to wonder if such an event might lead to the calling off of Brexit.
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Re: The weekend polls will be interesting.

Postby TheOstrich » 02 Jun 2017, 18:00

Workingman wrote:I am now beginning to wonder if such an event might lead to the calling off of Brexit.


I've been wondering that as well. That's a whole kettle of worms, let alone a can of fish. The Europeans, however, might be quite happy just watching us tear ourselves apart - and any trust there was, on either side, has long since gone.
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Re: The weekend polls will be interesting.

Postby Workingman » 02 Jun 2017, 18:40

I notice that the media is being very quiet about it, but it must have crossed a few minds. Everything we have heard so far has been predicated on a massive Tory majority, and that might still be the case. However, things might not go as May planned, so I do hope that someone in the civil service and the main political parties is looking at a plan B.
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Re: The weekend polls will be interesting.

Postby Suff » 02 Jun 2017, 19:41

Workingman wrote:I notice that the media is being very quiet about it, but it must have crossed a few minds. Everything we have heard so far has been predicated on a massive Tory majority, and that might still be the case. However, things might not go as May planned, so I do hope that someone in the civil service and the main political parties is looking at a plan B.


What, you mean like a Brexit white paper from Labour? Isn't that the job of opposition? To show up the government by showing how they would deal with the same situation? In the same or more detail?

Wouldn't that be nice...
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Re: The weekend polls will be interesting.

Postby Workingman » 02 Jun 2017, 20:23

I have been very clear in keeping party politics out of this so I am not about to start. This is about a situation this country could find itself in as we start Brexit negotiations proper.

There is a clear and present danger that the UK could find itself with a weak government, no matter what party is in charge. If that does come about then what the hell do we do?

Do we march on knowing that they know we are in the weakest position possible? Do we retrench in the hope of going again when the time is right? We are entering a phase in this election that nobody predicted, but even so there are tough questions to be asked; and answered.
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Re: The weekend polls will be interesting.

Postby AliasAggers » 03 Jun 2017, 20:29

I shall be glad when the election is over, whatever the result. I'm just about fed up with everything about it.

In all my years, I've never known such a horrible, miserable time, with dirty political campaigning, and with
lousy coverage by both the press and the TV channels. I shall vote, although I know that my vote won't make
a blind bit of difference to the outcome. Still, compared with all the other threats now facing mankind, the
results of this U.K. election is peanuts. You wait and see!
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Re: The weekend polls will be interesting.

Postby Workingman » 03 Jun 2017, 20:58

AliasAggers wrote:I shall be glad when the election is over, whatever the result. I'm just about fed up with everything about it.

You and millions of others, Aggers.

With the current election uncertainty hanging over us, and against my better judgement, I am prepared to accept that a Tory win with a slightly increased majority is the best we can hope for. Anything else (apart from the lost landslide) and we really are in deep excrement because we will probably need another election by the end of summer, and if that is not a clear win for a party we might need another. And all this will be going on as we try to negotiate Brexit.
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Re: The weekend polls will be interesting.

Postby Suff » 03 Jun 2017, 23:16

I guess, first of all, if you believe the polls.

I suppose, secondly, if the UK backs out of A50 now, it will never attempt to leave again. Because it would take another 20 years to try and leave and by then the vast majority of the UK would not really know a time when the UK was not in the EU or the EEC.

I guess there is a simple tactic here. If there is a weak government just use the vote of confidence to force the changes through.

However when you talk about the polls and it's impact on our Brexit negotiations, you have to factor in at least some party politics. There are 4 parties which are viable to vote for in this election. Only one of them has a plan for actually getting out. It may not be much of a plan but it is a plan. The rest? Rhetoric aside? Swing between "I'm not leaving" and "ask me after the election and I'll think about it".

If the Tories don't win, then the end result is not likely to be good. If the Tories do win with a smaller majority? Likely to be somewhat better but still not good. If the Tories win with a larger majority; Brexit will be smoother (in whatever form), but we'll pay the price elsewhere.

I've just had a look at the polls up to June 1st and they do not seem to match the rhetoric in the press, from either side.

It looks to me like the tory press is selling "vote now or lose it" and the Labour press is selling "just get out and vote and we'll win it". The SNP are muddying the water with a "we'll work with Labour so long as it works for us" and the Lib Dems are mewling about a whole load of things I really don't care very much about. Which might be dismissive but, honestly, if they get more than 6 seats Farron will have done well.

In short if the Lib Dems get more than 8% of the vote I'll be surprised, if the UKIP get more than 3% I'll be surprised and I'll be very interested to see what happens in the North East and Scotland.

Whatever happens on the 8th, I'll be interested to see, on the 9th, what the plan is. Because that's the only day when we will have the slightest clue how Brexit is going to go.
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