by Suff » 23 Jul 2018, 20:52
Essentially, I believe, the EU is doing the job for the Hard Brexiteers.
Even through a catalogue of catastrophic decisions by the EU, intending to browbeat the UK, they have not learned one single thing. Transaction tax, veto. Change in terms to avoid a referendum, sent away with a scolding. Leading to a referendum and a Brexit vote.
Now we have the EU DEMANDING that the UK do what they say and break apart the UK if we won't.
Most likely result? Two fingers and walking with no bill and an even larger hole through the middle of the EU 2020 - 2027 budget.
We've got Raab, new in the job, going from carrot to stick, we've got Hunt issuing warnings and Barnier talking about redlines and the NI border (again).
The EU has not learned one single thing through this entire process.
Neither have most of our own politicians either. But the upshot of the whole thing is this. May put her entire career on the line, forcing Davis and Boris out, pushing Raab into a new role to "make it happen". What did she get? More of the same. The EU wants to hear what the EU wants to hear and is not willing to hear anything else.
Who was May talking to before making this "momentous" decision? Merkel and Macron.
Guess what Theresa, Surprise. Merkel and Macron signed the same treaty that the other 25 did. Giving the Commission SOLE negotiating competency. Merkel only gets to have a say once Juncker puts a deal in front of her. Oh she can suggest away as much as she likes, but she has no direct sway over these negotiations at all.
As I said, the day after May's coup. The EU will never go for it.
The Government is going on recess. They will reconvene in September. The EU is not going to change its mind and they _need_ a deal done by October so that it can be put before the Council and then to the 27 member state Parliaments.
That deal will not be on the table because May cannot, now, back down. It is physically impossible, she would face a challenge the day after she capitulated and the EU would be left fuming whilst the Tory Party elected a new leader. A leader with a mandate to tell them to go shove it where the sun don't shine.
Juncker has always believed that the UK would capitulate. After all that is what all "good" EU governments do when negotiating with the EU. He has not, yet, realised that he simply does not understand the UK. If he did, we would never have had a referendum in the first place.
There are 10 types of people in the world:
Those who understand Binary and those who do not.