48 letters are in.

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Re: 48 letters are in.

Postby Workingman » 14 Dec 2018, 10:53

So the square is circled. Brexit, in its current form, is insane and is stupid.

Normally I would be ashamed to agree with anything Blair says, but he is right about A50, it needs to be revoked. It needs to be revoked in order for the UK to dispassionately look at as many feasible Brexits as possible and to analyse them to death, and then to plan for any and every eventuality with each of them.

Only when that work is completed should we have another referendum. The campaigns for that referendum should only receive a limited amount of public money with all other funds banned outright. All options should also have as many of their factual pros and cons laid out for all to see. Such a momentous decision for the country has to be, and seen to be, fair and clinically clean.

If the process takes another few or even five more years it should not be a problem. We have already gone 40 odd, allegedly. so another few would not hurt. The important thing is that if we are to Brexit it has to be done properly.
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Re: 48 letters are in.

Postby TheOstrich » 14 Dec 2018, 13:58

Although it pains me to say it, I can't do anything other than agree; I think the best option now has to be to revoke Article 50.

May's deal is a complete dog's breakfast and I don't think anyone wants to see that succeed. To try and hold a second referendum now (with just 15 weeks to go before the deadline day) would really be a pointless exercise, whatever the result, that will only divide the country further. No deal has become a non-starter because it is obvious we are woefully unprepared for it; planning should have started 2 years ago.

I do not think Brexit will ever happen now, either this March or at any time in the future. We will continue to be a cash cow for the EU, effectively governed by EU lawmakers, subsumed into a federal state, and diminished in every respect.

In my book, our first priority really needs to be to get rid of this absolutely inept failure of a Tory Government. Whether you are a Leaver or a Remainer, I hope you can agree with that sentiment.
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Re: 48 letters are in.

Postby Workingman » 14 Dec 2018, 15:00

TheOstrich wrote:I do not think Brexit will ever happen now....

I would not be so sure. The box lid has been opened and there is no way of closing it.

Brexit will be revisited at some point. There are far too many people, on both sides of the argument, who want a resolution one way or another. Also it has to happen to go some way of healing the divide caused by the current mess. Next time, however, whichever option is chosen, it has to be prepared for properly long before A50 is invoked.

The Tories? Not only do they have to be removed from government, the party needs a good clean out of all the third raters feeding at the trough.
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Re: 48 letters are in.

Postby cromwell » 15 Dec 2018, 09:35

Whatever happens this has all been a farce; and the politicians of the UK have emerged from it with no credit.

May's deal is a joke, but she will still try and force it through. If she can't, we are left with two options. No Brexit or a hard Brexit.

And since Parliament is stuffed to the gills with remainer MP's my guess is that it will be no Brexit.

Whether this happens by a vote in the House of Commons or another referendum (although is there time for one, with May running down the clock?), the politicians of the UK don't want to leave the EU, never have, and if they can force us to stay in they will.
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Re: 48 letters are in.

Postby Workingman » 15 Dec 2018, 17:22

The plot is now in the open - May is running down the clock to try to make her 'deal' the only one available. Jo Johnson, the resigned former transport minister, has now made that clear. It is the most despicable of tactics.

At the same time Amber Rudd has called for a 'consensus' to try something different and to look at different options to avoid a no deal.

And Jeremy Hunt says that 'a version' of May's deal might get the nod.

What I find interesting is that when the news outlets look at all these other options the only ones spoken about seem to be Norway +, Canada (add + signs as required), ref 2 and no deal. They are all avoiding revocation of A50 like the plague, yet it is an option.

It might actually be the only option to stop the train wreck.
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Re: 48 letters are in.

Postby Workingman » 16 Dec 2018, 19:02

May's deal will not pass so another day, another bag of fudge.

A free vote over the 'best' option. A poll of polls of MPs to decide the best way forward, whatever that is. The body swerves never end.

Excuse me jadies and lentilmen but you are 650 strong and we are 65 million. It would be polite for you to let us help you out.

Call 08000 555 8910 we are here to help.
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Re: 48 letters are in.

Postby Suff » 16 Dec 2018, 19:04

Workingman wrote:It might actually be the only option to stop the train wreck.


There is no stopping the train wreck now. There is only slightly different versions of the train wreck. Every Single Thing that is now done has political consequences to one extent or another.

Unilaterally revoking notification of an intent to withdraw is not without consequence. It will enrage everyone but the remainers and, let us not forget, there are more for Brexit than against it. It will not stop the EU citizens from leaving as their uncertainty will continue, it will do not one single thing to stop banking moving out of the UK nor will it help the economy as uncertainty will simply have been prolonged.

The only possible action to stabilise the country, now, is to determine that the Brexit Referendum was only advisory, revoke notification of an intent to leave the EU and make it permanent.

However, even that, would cause the government to collapse, votes to spin out to hard right protest groups and cause huge unrest and political tensions for at least a decade.

The cheapest cost alternative, right now, is to procrastinate the decision, keep the government going, expire the A50 timeline and crash out with no deal. It would cause about 6 months worth of hard work and hardship and then the uncertainty would be over and we would be able to move on.

Revoking A50 without a plan, or asking for an extension without a firm commitment from the EU to changes in any deal, are a disaster of the nth degree.

To think that there is, or was ever, any easy way out of the EU is simply childish. The EU were clear, when we voted, that they would punish us to the limit of their capability, to dissuade others from leaving, should we vote to leave the EU.

That stance left us with very few options.

1. Leave with nothing and take the consequences
2. Bully the EU into a better deal
3. Don't leave

Everyone was scared of #1. Davis was doing quite well with #'2 until May took over and insisted that the EU were "nice guys" and "just bluffing" on punishment. We now know where that got us. #3 was never an option when we had over 1m more people voting Leave than Remain.

Today we have lost the ability to do #2 because of May. We are left with a stark binary choice as we know that the EU succeeded in bullying the UK in #2. We are left with #1 or #3.

The Tories cannot survive #3 but might just survive #1 if they were positive about it and had enough time to deliver the upside.
Labour cannot survive #3 and it is unlikely they can survive #1 either as their economic stance makes it virtually impossible for them to make great benefit of WTO. Hence Corbyn doesn't want to bring the government down.

What Corbyn wants is to keep May in power, force her to option #1 by demanding that she deliver the benefits of option #3 whilst leaving the EU; an impossible task for anyone, let alone May; then he wants to take down the government at the post Brexit referendum and enact all his crazy policies without the interference of the EU.

Care for another analysis?
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Those who understand Binary and those who do not.
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Re: 48 letters are in.

Postby Workingman » 16 Dec 2018, 20:05

Suff wrote:The cheapest cost alternative, right now, is to procrastinate the decision, keep the government going, expire the A50 timeline and crash out with no deal. It would cause about 6 months worth of hard work and hardship and then the uncertainty would be over and we would be able tomove on.

And that, dear friends, is the biggest load of BS ever delivered. We have been at this for over 20 months without any agreement, but six months of hard work by Brexperts, the ones they do not like, and it will be mermaids, unicorns and sunny uplands! This beggars belief.

The EU, and the UK as members, have 60+ trade deals with individual countries and trading blocs. If we crash out we lose them. We have to renegotiate those deals - in six months. Do give it a rest!

The only countries who have declared as only trading to WTO rules are:

Holy See
Mauritania
Monaco
Montenegro
Palau
Timor-Leste
Sao Tome and Principe
Serbia
Somalia
South Sudan
Sudan
Western Sahara

Evdereyone else is in some trade bloc or area of some sort. Get those market gates open!!!

Suff wrote:Revoking A50 without a plan, or asking for an extension without a firm commitment from the EU to changes in any deal, are a disaster of the nth degree.


Tosh. Revoking A50 lets us make a plan or plans. We never had one with the present train wreck, but you Brexiters want to carry on with it regardless. If we revoke A50 wse stay in the EU as we are. That has been confirmed. We can then go again with A50 and a workable Brexit sometime in the future. Why are you hardline Brexiters so against that? What are you so afraid of? Your shadows!

The EU is not punishing the UK in any way, shape or form. It is laying out the process for a country to leave, be it the UK, Slovenia, Germany or Malta. We need to get over this 'we are the victims' rubbish.
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Re: 48 letters are in.

Postby Kaz » 16 Dec 2018, 21:32

Well said Frank.
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Re: 48 letters are in.

Postby Osc » 16 Dec 2018, 22:30

Kaz wrote:Well said Frank.


I agree.
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